NFL Divisional Round Preview
We’ve reached the divisional round, which is where things get real. I absolutely love the Wild Card round and that we get six games of great football throughout the weekend. That being said, it has its fair share of pretenders that can water down the action. That won’t be a problem this weekend. I’m not claiming that every team still alive has a legitimate shot to win the Super Bowl. However, each team has undeniably earned their right to be here. Also, before I go further, shoutout to the Washington Commanders for their first playoff win since 2006.
Whether it be a high-powered offense, suffocating defense, or simply championship pedigree, all of these teams provide excitement for this next round. The Chiefs and Texans will both answer questions to those that doubt them. Detroit will look to continue their historic season while Jayden Daniels and the Commanders try to keep their magical season going. Both the Eagles and Rams have bounced back strong after early season struggles that brought about a ton of questions. Finally the Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson showdown represents a duel between the 2 current favorites for this seasons MVP. I’ll go into details on each matchup a little more below, but the headline should have every football fan excited.
My Wild Card record was not ideal to say the least. I am not upset with the results, but we’ll call it pleasantly surprised with the performances of the Texans, Commanders, and Rams. See my record below and let’s get ready to bounce back with our predictions!
Wild Card Round: 3-3
Texans @ Chiefs
Why Texans Win:
Win the turnover battle
Establish the run game
Feed Nico Collins
Why Chiefs Win:
Score touchdowns in the red zone
Blitz and pressure CJ Stroud
Get a couple big plays from the receivers
Key Matchups:
Texans IOL vs. Chris Jones
Nico Collins vs. Trent McDuffie
Jawaan Taylor and Joe Thuney vs. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson
Game Analysis:
I made the mistake of sleeping on the Texans in their first round matchup against the Chargers. I will not be making that mistake again. While the Chiefs are deservedly favored as the one seed, the Texans are not to be overlooked. When Houston has been able to get Joe Mixon going on the ground, it opens up their entire offense. It keeps the defense on their toes and prevents a talented Chiefs defense from teeing off against CJ Stroud. During Wild Card Weekend, the Texans defense was one of the most impressive units I saw. A tenacious pass rusher combined with skilled, opportunistic defensive backs spells disaster for any team. Kansas City has a struggling offensive line, primarily at the tackle positions, Hunter and Anderson will look to take advantage of this. Houston will need to play one of their best games this season, but they are not out of this one to say the least. If Houston can win the turnover margin and get their two stars (Mixon and Collins) going on offense, this game could come down to the wire.
Kansas City is coming off their first round bye and entering familiar territory. Throughout the Mahomes era, the Chiefs have been the hunted come playoff time. This game will bring up our annual obsession with the old rest vs. rust adage. This one is a little more extreme in my opinion as a majority of the Chiefs starters haven’t played a game since Christmas Day. With all that being said, the Chiefs are 15-2 (14-1 with Mahomes starting) this season. The play on the field might not always be pretty, but they are winning games. The performances of the two starting tackles leave a lot to be desired. A couple things that are going the Chiefs’ way are a stifling defense and a skilled group of wide receivers. Defensively, we know Spags steps up his game even more in the playoffs. Outside of Chris Jones, this unit is filled with household names. However, every man does their job and there are a few players that will probably become stars in the near future. The Chiefs’ receiver core have not put up massive numbers, but they have a mix of young talent and proven veterans that I think will come up big in the postseason. I also don’t believe Andy Reid has been using Hollywood Brown, Deandre Hopkins, and Travis Kelce like he will in the playoffs. Big Red seems to keep things close to his chest and unleashes his worst come playoff time. I would like to see Kansas City start fast, put pressure on CJ Stroud, and avoid settling for field goals in the Red Zone.
As stated, I was thoroughly impressed by Houston in their Wild Card Round win. They looked balanced offensively and their defense looked elite. There is an opportunity to take advantage on the edges rushing the passer and cause some problems for Kansas City. I expect the Texans to lean on the run and try to stay ahead of the chains in this game. The goal will be to have Stroud get the ball out of his hands quickly to neutralize the Chiefs pass rush against a weak Texans O-line. Kansas City will look to pressure CJ Stroud and get a couple of the big plays that they’ve been lacking in the passing game. Like I said, I think Andy Reid has been keeping his cards close to his chest, which is why we’ve seen such a vanilla Kansas City offense. They might not be as dynamic as past Chiefs offenses, but they’ll be more efficient in the playoffs. The Texans will put up a fight, but I fully expect the Chiefs to start their quest for a 3-peat with a win.
Prediction: Chiefs 27 Texans 17
Commanders @ Lions
Why Commanders Win:
More Jayden Daniels Magic
Force 2 or more turnovers
Get Terry McLaurin the ball
Why Lions Win:
Feed David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs
Prevent big plays from the Washington offense
No turnovers from Jared Goff
Key Matchups:
Terry McLaurin vs. Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Bobby Wagner
Lions OL vs. Commanders DL
Game Analysis:
The Washington Commanders are another team that I was wrong about in the first round. They played an incredible game and ended up winning on a doinked-in field goal. It continued an impressive season where rookie sensation Jayden Daniels continued to execute when the pressure was at its highest. Washington is a team that relies heavily on their offense to continue winning. The rushing attack has been a struggle late in the season outside of designed runs for Daniels. Kliff Kingsbury helps draw up a tremendous game plan that schemes receivers open and Jayden delivers his passes with pinpoint accuracy. Big throws down the field to Terry McLaurin are a huge part of this offense and something Washington will need more of to win this week. Defensively, the Commanders have improved throughout the season but they frankly seem overmatched by an elite Lions offense. There is some talent along the defensive line mixed in with veterans like Chinn, Lattimore, and Wagner. So this defense can’t be overlooked and will need to create some turnovers to keep Washington in this game.
Detroit is a team that dominated throughout the regular season, despite a series of injuries. Detroit has one of the most high powered offenses I’ve seen in recent memory, and will not be an easy out in the playoffs. Dan Campbell has completely changed the culture for Detroit. Despite the deserved attention the Lions get, I still don’t believe enough of it goes towards the job done by Campbell. The big question mark for Detroit is their defense. The return of Alex Anzalone is a big boost and this defense is much improved from last season. However, this is still a unit that is riddled with injuries and has given up 28+ points 5 times this season. They will need to pressure Jayden Daniels and prevent big plays. Offensively, I am not worried about this team in the slightest. Jared Goff has been relatively consistent this year, Montgomery and Gibbs are both healthy, their offensive line is elite, and finally Ben Johnson is a play calling wizard. This Lions team should have no issue putting up points in this matchup. Take care of the ball and get just a few stops throughout the game and they should be moving on to their second straight NFC Championship game.
This matchup should be a lot of fun. If you’re a fan of defense, maybe find something else to do on Saturday night because I expect this game to be more of a shootout. The defenses for each team is their weaker unit and each stop will create huge momentum swings in this game. Both defenses have performed better as the season progressed but will struggle against these dynamic offenses. Washington will need to keep up with this highly praised Detroit offense. Detroit will look to continue what they’ve been doing offensively and speed up Washington’s rookie quarterback. I am risking it by doubting the rookie sensation again, but I think Aaron Glenn will gameplan just enough to slow down Daniels. The Lions get a big boost by the return of David Montgomery and I expect them to pound the rock in this matchup. I look forward to a high scoring game but think the Lions move on to the NFC Title game for the second straight year.
Prediction: Lions 33 Commanders 24
Rams @ Eagles
Why Rams Win:
Put pressure on Jalen Hurts
Get Cooper Kupp involved
Win the turnover battle
Why Eagles Win:
Feed Saquon and then feed him some more
Sack/ Pressure Stafford with 4/5 rushers
Turnover free game from Jalen Hurts
Key Matchups:
Cooper Kupp vs. Cooper DeJean
Eagles OL vs. Rams DL
Rams IOL vs. Jalen Carter
Game Analysis:
The Rams dominated the game against Minnesota from start to finish on Monday night. Their offense did it’s job, but the star of the show was this defense. This defense sacked Sam Darnold 9 times and prevented Minnesota from getting in a rhythm. The young pass rushers for Los Angeles are a unit to watch over the next several years. With that being said, we’re talking about this upcoming game on Sunday. That blossoming unit will need to come up big against one of the best offensive lines in the league. Pressuring Jalen Hurts and not allowing that offense to stay on schedule will be key to allowing Los Angeles to pull off the upset. Offensively, they’ll need to get their elite trio of weapons involved (Kupp, Nacua, and Williams). In my opinion, Kupp will be a major key in this matchup. His role was limited on Monday and they’ll need to get the veteran weapon involved to keep this Eagles defense on its toes.
Philadelphia rolled the Packers last weekend, started by a forced fumble on the opening kickoff. However, I didn’t walk away from that game incredibly impressed with the Eagles performance. The game was never really in question but the offense stalled and played a mostly uninspired game. The Eagles defense forced turnovers and was the catalyst for the Philly victory. Offensively, I would like to see more explosiveness from the Eagles, primarily in the passing game. The combination of Brown, Smith, and Goedert are elite options and Jalen Hurts needs to get them the ball. Defensively put pressure on Stafford without having to rely heavily on the blitz and shut down the Rams rushing attack. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they lost emerging star Nakobe Dean in their Wildcard Weekend victory. The play on Orens Burks and Zach Baun will be huge in stopping the run. This duo will need to perform for the Eagles on Sunday and beyond.
This matchup favors Philly in my opinion. They should be able to dominate at both lines of scrimmage and force the Rams to load the box on defense and become pass heavy on offense. Offensively, Los Angeles will need to stay balanced and get the ball to their playmakers. Philly has an elite defense, but I like Cooper Kupp out of the slot. Philly might be able to contain Williams but look for Nacua and Kupp to get some work in the slot. The Rams will look to put pressure on Jalen Hurts, forcing him to play like an elite quarterback as opposed to a game manager. Hurts has that in him, his Super Bowl performance against Kansas City for example, but we don’t consistently see performances like that. The problem with that gameplan is, I don’t know if the Rams can stop Saquon Barkley. Expect to see a ton of Saquon on Sunday and he will lead the Eagles to the NFC title game next weekend.
Prediction: Eagles 27 Rams 16
Ravens @ Bills
Why Ravens Win:
Derrick Henry/Lamar Jackson rushing attack
WRs/TEs step up in Zay Flowers absence
Keep Josh Allen in the pocket
Why Bills Win:
Josh Allen ball outs and we see another “Playoff Lamar” debacle
Unleash James Cook
Force Lamar to win as a passer
Key Matchups:
Rashod Bateman/ Nelson Agholor vs. Christian Benford/ Rasul Douglas
Dalton Kincaid vs. Roquan Smith
Josh Allen vs. Kyle Hamilton
Game Analysis:
This is the game we’ve been waiting for and it is rightfully the final game on Sunday Night. The votes for MVP may already be in, but Allen and Jackson care more about winning the MVP of the game on Sunday. Baltimore is coming into this game after dominating division rival Pittsburgh in a game that was as close as the 28-14 final might indicate. They dominated the first half and then coasted in the second. On Sunday, they will need to force their will on an undersized Bills defensive front. Lamar Jackson gets a lot of the attention, but Baltimore needs to remember why they got Henry this offseason. It was primarily for games like this to ease Lamar’s burden in the playoffs. The much improved Raven’s defense will need to come up with timely stops in order to get this road win. Despite allowing the Bills to score 10 points in their Week 4 matchup, I just don’t think that will happen again. I am not expecting a shutdown performance by this defense, but look for Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith to come up with big plays when the pressure is at it’s highest.
For Buffalo, they need to keep the same recipe that they’ve used for this entire season. Get Cook going on the ground, stay unpredictable, and use Allen’s legs in short yardage situations. The Bills offense use team approach when it comes to their pass catchers. They don’t rely on one alpha receiver but instead use Shakir, Cooper, Kincaid, Coleman, Knox, and Hollins consistently throughout the game. This allows Allen to always have options when he drops back to pass and forces a defense to account for each weapon. Defensively, they will need to play their best game of the season for the defensive line and line backers. Henry and Jackson will attack the entire game and this Bills front needs to be ready. In what was supposed to be a potential down year in Buffalo, has turned out to be Josh Allen’s best season and one of the best chances the Bills have to break their Super Bowl drought.
This game can go either way and it matches up the two most exciting AFC teams from this regular season. I have truly flip flopped several times on who I think will win. The Bills offense has been unstoppable throughout this season and the return of Matt Milano brings a huge boost to a defense that struggled at times throughout this season. Not to mention the Bills are the only team that’s beaten the Chiefs this season with Patrick Mahomes starting. With as impressive as Buffalo has been this season, I have decided to ride with Baltimore. The Ravens look incredible this season behind a more efficient Lamar Jackson and the beast himself Derrick Henry. One hesitation I had is that the “Playoff Lamar” history has not been great and he will look to have his best playoff performance yet this year. My deciding factor was that this is a different Baltimore team and Henry reinvented this Raven’s offense. This game will come down to the wire but I ultimately think Baltimore’s offense and defense make the necessary plays when they matter most.
Prediction: Ravens 28 Bills 23
I am hoping to bounce back from a mediocre 3-3 prediction performance last weekend, but above all let’s have a great weekend of football. We have an incredible few days of matchups culminating to the much anticipated Bills vs. Raven heavyweight battle. I am excited to see what storylines emerge from this round and I will be checking in with you all again in about a weeks time. Enjoy another beautiful weekend of football!