NFL Championship Round Previews
Now that’s what we watch hours upon hours of football for! That Divisional Round had 4 entertaining games, including one massive upset and two that went down to the wire. We had big drops, defensive stops, pick sixes, questionable calls, and so much more. In one of the best sports weekends of the year, the NFL delivered. We once again have a ton of storylines to watch heading into the Championship Round. The Chiefs are chasing a three-peat, Buffalo is looking to overcome their rivals in Kansas City, Jayden Daniels and what is potentially the greatest rookie season of all time, and Philly looking to rewrite the wrongs of past seasons.
These matchups are very different in nature. In the first matchup we have a battle between two division foes with Washington against Philadelphia (split the season series). This is a matchup of teams that has only met in the playoffs one other time. The main difference is that the Commanders were not expected to make the playoffs, much less the NFC Championship game. Kansas City squaring off against Buffalo is a battle of two teams that have faced off in the playoffs a few times over the past several years. They are led by two elite quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to see who represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. While these matchups are different in many ways, there is one similarity. Both matchups have teams that are similar with and hate each other. Luckily for us viewers, this will give us a great Championship Round.
My performance through the first two rounds have been perfectly mediocre. I am not upset with the results. Outside of the Commanders win, I really wasn’t shocked by any of the outcomes. See my .500 record below and read my preview for the NFC and AFC Championships.
Wild Card Round: 3-3
Divisional Round: 2-2
Commanders @ Eagles
Why Commanders Win:
Win the turnover battle
Create big plays to Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown
Don’t let Jalen Carter take over
Why Eagles Win:
Establish Saquon Barkley early
Get Washington in 3rd/ 4th and long
100+ yards from AJ Brown
Key Matchups:
Commanders IOL vs Jalen Carter
AJ Brown and Devonta Smith vs. Marshon Lattimore and Mikey Sainristil
Lane Johnson vs. Dorance Armstrong
Game Analysis:
Rookie star Jayden Daniels is having one of the best rookie seasons of all time. He has lead his commanders to the NFC title game, in what so far has been a magical run. I have foolishly picked against the Commanders in both games, resulting in my mediocre playoff prediction record. Their win over the Lions has been the upset of the playoffs so far. Jayden Daniels balled out as expected but the defense is what truly put this team in a position to win. They forced 5 turnovers and players like Jeremy Chinn, Mikey Sainristil, and Dorance Armstrong deserve a ton of credit for that win. With that being said, they will be tested physically early in this upcoming matchup against Philly. The Eagles will look to establish Saquon early and often to make Jalen Hurts’ life easy. This will represent a huge challenge for the Commanders, as they will need to create turnovers to win this game. Offensively, the emergence of Dyami Brown has been huge for this offense and taken pressure of Terry McLaurin. Along with forcing a couple turnovers and some Jayden Daniels magic, the Commanders will need McLaurin and Brown to make some big plays down the field.
The Eagles dominated both the Packers and Rams in their first two playoff games. They were clearly the better team, yet both games were closer than expected. This included the Rams having the ball down six with a chance to win. Philly has not played their best ball yet despite the defense and Saquon Barkley being dominating forces. They have not throw the ball with much efficiency, which will be needed to advance further in this playoff. I believe the offensive line and Barkley will get going without much issue against this Commanders defense. This will open up the play action pass where Jalen Hurts will need to take advantage here. If Hurts can connect deep with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith just 2-3 times on Sunday, the Eagles will be in a prime position to win. Defensively, the Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best units in the NFL. There were some injuries last weekend but the Eagles are entering this game healthy on the defensive side besides the Nakobe Dean loss. If the Commanders fail to eliminate Jalen Carter, it will be tough for them to start this Eagles unit. The middle of the defense has taken a hit without Dean, but the other two levels of this defense can cause problems at any moment.
As I stated earlier, I have doubted the Commanders in both prior games. Jayden Daniels enters this game with a chance to become the first rookie quarterback to start in the Super Bowl. Throughout this season he has proven to be someone that I trust in end of game scenarios. This Commanders team also takes advantage of mistakes made by their opponents. They have every chance to win this game, but I just think the Eagles have too many advantages in this matchup. On both the offensive and defensive lines, Philly has the leg-up. If they can dominate the trenches by running all over this Commanders defense and pushing the Washington offensive line backwards, they should win without sweating too much. I think Daniels will keep the Commies in this game with a few crazy plays, but it ultimately won’t be enough. Despite a much improved Washington defense, Philly’s offense will have much more ease than their opponent will. The Eagles will feed off a crazy crowd and I think Hurts silences the doubters with a couple great deep shots down the field. Out of these two NFC East Rivals, expect Philadelphia to return to the Super Bowl.
Prediction: Eagles 29 Commanders 20
Bills @ Chiefs
Why Bills Win:
Do not turn the football over
Stay balanced offensively
Keep Travis Kelce under 70 yards
Why Chiefs Win:
Keep the game close going into the 4th quarter
Get a big play out of Brown, Worthy, or Hopkins
Establish the run
Key Matchups:
Bills IOL vs. Chris Jones
Travis Kelce vs. Matt Milano/Taron Johnson
Khalil Shakir/Keon Coleman vs. Trent McDuffie/Jaylen Watson
Game Analysis:
Is this the year Buffalo finally returns to the Super Bowl? In a season that was supposed to be almost a rebuilding year, the Bills have found themselves on the doorstep of a Super Bowl. Buffalo dismantled the Broncos and narrowly beat the Ravens to get to this point. Now they square off against a familiar foe. This Bills team is different than those of years past and finds their identity in the run game. James Cook has been incredible this season behind the best Bills offensive line we’ve seen in years. This is built like a team with a below average quarterback, but in reality, they have Josh Allen at the helm. Josh’s ability this season to perform at an MVP caliber level while taking care of the ball is a huge reason for the success Buffalo has had this season. He will need to keep a clean slate and not turn over the football for the Bills to pull out a win here. Taking care of the ball and getting the run game going will make this team almost impossible to beat. A balanced offense will keep this great Chiefs defense on their heels. Defensively, this Chiefs team has proven for 7 years that they are nearly impossible to stop in the playoffs. With the fluctuation of this Chiefs receiving corps, Mahomes relies heavily on Travis Kelce. If the Bills can keep him contained, Mahomes will have to look elsewhere for production.
Kansas City is in the AFC Championship game again, which comes as a surprise to nobody. They defeated Houston in their Divisional Round matchup and continue their journey for a three-peat. For those of us that have followed the Chiefs throughout the Mahomes era, this offense is confusing to say the least. It lacks the explosiveness of past teams, but still just finds a way to win. Offensively, Kansas City has a lot of solid weapons but none have quite formed the trust with Mahomes that Chiefs fans have looked for. Thankfully for them, Travis Kelce has again started his yearly tradition of underwhelming in the regular season but then returning to form in the playoffs. This offense will need to be more successful running the ball against Buffalo, as it was nearly nonexistent against the Texans. Defensively, they are going up against a really tough Buffalo unit. A unit that doesn’t create a ton of explosive plays, but they just march the ball down the field with ease. Kansas City will look to create a turnover or keep Buffalo behind the sticks. Doing so will allow Chris Jones and George Karlaftis to rush Allen in key situations. If Kansas City can get a couple big plays from non-Kelce pass catchers and keep it a one possession game heading into the fourth quarter, they will more than likely win.
Similarly to the Bills/Ravens game from last weekend, I could go either way with this matchup. Buffalo is so balanced and they have their best chance to knock off Kansas City this time around. Josh Allen is playing his best ball and the Chiefs have shown signs of weakness throughout the season. On the other side, Kansas City has done this time and time again. This team might not be the prettiest but it has a great defense, elite coach, Hall of Fame tight end, and the best quarterback in the game today. Buffalo will need to be up by two scores in the 4th quarter if they hope to win this one. If not, we have seen that movie too many times. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are trailing at one point but then he gets the ball late and wins them the game. I want to pick the Bills because the people of Buffalo deserve a Super Bowl. However, I refuse to pick against the Chiefs until someone proves they can be beaten in the playoffs. Buffalo will need to play nearly a perfect game to win, but I don’t expect that to happen. At some point the Bills will leave the door open and that is where the Chiefs will swoop in for the kill.
Prediction: Chiefs 27 Bills 24
It’s time where the brightest stars in the NFL truly shine and players become legends. We have two great games set for Sunday and both games I truly believe can go either way. My prediction is a Super Bowl rematch from two seasons ago, but no outcome will truly shock me. Also based on my predictions so far, it is likely that I go 1-1 to keep up my .500 performance in this playoffs. With all that being said, we are down to the last 3 football games of the season. So put down those phones and lock in to every second of the two games this weekend.