NFL Wildcard Round Preview
Welcome to Wild Card Weekend in the NFL! The combination of the NFL and College Football Playoffs has blessed us with five straight games of playoff football. In the NFL, we have 2 games on Saturday, 3 on Sunday, and 1 on Monday to wrap things up. As we saw with the College Playoff, not all the games will go down to the wire or be close in the 4th quarter. However, playoff football is a different environment. We truly have everything in these matchups. There are MVP candidates, rookies, teams trying to end losing streaks, and each matchup has some intrigue to it. It goes without saying but I am excited and will not be moving from my couch very much this weekend.
Chargers @ Texans
Why Chargers Win:
Put pressure on CJ Stroud
Get JK Dobbins going to open the play action
Why Texans Win:
Get the running game going early
Force two or more turnovers
Lock down Ladd McConkey (Force others receivers to step up)
Key Matchups:
Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater vs. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson
Ladd McConkey vs. Kamari Lassiter
Game Analysis:
Despite the slide that has happened to the Texans during the latter half of this season, I think this will be a good game. For the Chargers, they have a great defense and play an old style of football. Similarly to Houston, Los Angeles will want to get the run going to open up the play action pass. They will need to be firing on all cylinders to prevent an elite Texans pass rush from teeing off against Herbert. All of the attention in Houston goes to CJ Stroud, but their defense is what can potentially lead the Texans to victory. CJ Stroud has struggled this year but is still more than capable of putting up points in a hurry. The losses of Diggs and Dell hurt the explosiveness of this offense, but Nico Collins is still there as one of the best receivers in the NFL. When they were clicking most, they had Mixon rolling in the run game. While I think the Texans have more of a chance than most think, I believe the Chargers come out of this one on top. They will stay balanced on offense and get after a Houston offensive line that has struggled as of late. Justin Herbert will play smart, opportunistic football and get his first playoff victory.
Prediction: Chargers 24 Texans 17
Steelers @ Ravens
Why Steelers Win:
Throw the ball to George Pickens
Force turnovers
Turn Lamar into a passer
Why Ravens Win:
Rely on Derrick Henry and the run game
Stop the Steelers rushing attack
Wide Receivers pick up the slack with Zay Flowers out
Key Matchups:
Steeler OL vs. Ravens DL
George Pickens vs. Marlon Humphrey
Mark Andrews vs. Patrick Queen/ Mincah Fitzpatrick
Game Analysis:
Now this is a good old fashioned rivalry and we get to see a playoff edition of it Saturday night. The season series was split 1-1 so we can’t go with the classic, “it’s hard to beat a team three times,” song. The Steelers have lost 4 straight games. While three of these were to top tier teams in the NFL, that still isn’t how you want to enter the playoffs. Pittsburgh needs to establish the run game and get George Pickens involved to pull off the upset. The defense found more of a rhythm in their regular season finale against Cincinnati and I expect them to carry some defensive momentum into this game. Baltimore needs to expunge the ghosts of playoffs past and go on a deep run. They should be able to get this done without much issue, even though Pittsburgh has given Lamar fits in the past. It will hurt them to not have Zay Flower, so expect them to rely on Derrick Henry and the run game. The rebranding of this Raven’s defense in the second half of the season will be important through the playoffs. Wilson normally avoids the middle of the field, which would be wise on Saturday because that’s where Kyle Hamilton will be lurking. The Ravens should win this one and then have a big matchup in the Divisional Round.
Prediction: Ravens 30 Steelers 16
Broncos @ Bills
Why Broncos Win:
Underrated pass rush dominates the game
Bo Nix plays turnover free football
Sean Payton draws up creative plays
Why Bills Win:
Win the turnover battle
Make Bo Nix uncomfortable
Target cornerbacks not named Patrick Surtain
Key Matchups:
Bills OL vs. Broncos DL
Amari Cooper/Keon Coleman vs. Patrick Surtain II
Bo Nix vs. Rasul Douglas
Game Analysis:
There has been some momentum regarding the Denver Broncos making this a game. The Broncos offense has improved throughout the season and is now a solid unit. Their offensive line is strong, Bo Nix is playing his game, and Courtland Sutton is arguably having the best season of his career. Defensively they are an amazing unit. Their pass rush lead the league in sacks with 63.0, yet somehow is underrated. Shoutout to Zach Allen, Jonathan Cooper, and Nik Bonitto for terrorizing opposing quarterbacks all season. I won’t talk about Patrick Surtain II too much but just know he’s an island over there at the cornerback position. Now to the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen is an MVP candidate this season and playing some of his best football. The dual threat signal caller lacks a clear #1 option on the offense but spreads the ball to a talented group of pass catchers. One key to this game will be getting James Cook going on the ground. Buffalo sometimes has the unfortunate tendency to abandon the run game and that’s when they struggle the most. For this game, I think the Bills get it done. The statistics are there that show how quarterbacks, especially rookie quarterbacks, struggle in their first playoff start. Playoff football is just different and this Bills team is good enough on defense to make life hard for Bo Nix. If Buffalo wins the turnover battle, I think they win without much of an issue.
Prediction: Bills 34 Broncos 13
Packers @ Eagles
Why Packers Win:
Feed Josh Jacobs
Get out to an early lead
Stop the Philadelphia rushing attack
Why Eagles Win:
Stay balanced on offense
Don’t turn the ball over
Break the trend and start fast
Key Matchups:
Eagles OL vs. Packers Front 7
AJ Brown vs. Banged up Packers Secondary
Josh Myers vs. Jalen Carter
Game Analysis:
The Green Bay Packers might be the best seven seed in recent memory. Some years you get a team that is just happy to be in the playoffs, but not this team. Green Bay made a run into the postseason last year and have the team to do it again this year. The Packers will need to establish Josh Jacobs early or get out to an early lead if they want to have a chance. Philadelphia notoriously gets off to slow starts, so Green Bay will need to take advantage of that. Defensively, they are a fast unit but will need to force Jalen Hurts to be a pure passer. This could allow Xavier McKinney to get yet another interception. On the other side, the Eagles have one of the best rosters in the entire NFL. Philly will rely on their experienced offensive line and lean on 2,000 yard rusher Saquon Barkley. AJ Brown had a huge game in the season opener in Brazil against Green Bay, without Jaire Alexander he can do that again. Green Bay is a scary seven seed, but this Eagles team will be too much for them. If Philly can lead on Saquon, pressure Jordan Love, and get off to an early start, they will be hosting another home playoff game next weekend.
Prediction: Eagles 27 Packers 20
Commanders @ Buccaneers
Why Commanders Win:
More Jayden Daniels magic
He’s not the same QB the Bucs faced in Week 1
Take Mike Evans out of the game
Why Buccaneers Win:
Win the turnover battle
Feed Bucky Irving and Rachaad White
Stuff the Commanders rushing attack
Key Matchups:
Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore
Commanders IOL vs. Vita Vea
Jayden Daniels vs. Todd Bowles defensive scheme
Game Analysis:
This game is one that I could truly see going either way. Tampa Bay won this matchup in Week 1, but this isn’t the same Commanders team. Jayden Daniels has essentially locked down ROTY and improves each week. He is electric running the ball but doesn’t rely on that. He’s formed a dangerous connection with Terry McLaurin and passed with precision. Defensively, Washington leaves a lot to be desired but is much improved from earlier this season. Tampa Bay enters with more playoff experience but a lot of questions surrounding their team. Baker Mayfield is one of the most exciting gunslingers in the NFL today. He will need to take care of the ball if the Bucs want to win another playoff game. Mayfield is a focal point, but they’ll need to get the run game going to be successful. Bucky Irving has been a welcome surprise for this Tampa offense. I’d really like Tampa to stop the Commanders on the ground. They’ll need one of their cornerbacks to step up and stop Scary Terry to give them the best chance to win. This is the game where I’ve gone back and forth the most. The uncertainty wasn’t made easier by both teams struggling in previous weeks. Both offenses will put up points and this game should be a close one. In the end, I’m going to rely on a balanced offense in Tampa Bay. Key performers in this game for Tampa will be Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Tristian Wirfs, and Vita Vea. Based on the matchups, I expect at least 4 to put up great performances in this game. Also don't forget to watch Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore, we’ve seen those two battle in the past.
Prediction: Buccaneers 31 Commanders 30
Vikings @ Rams
Why Vikings Win:
Rams unable to cover Jefferson and Addison
Flores dials up pressure
Sam Darnold plays turnover free football
Why Rams Win:
Stafford plays like its 2021
Blitz and speed up Sam Darnold
Get Kyren Williams involved
Key Matchups:
Cam Robinson vs. Jared Verse
Kyren Williams vs. Blake Cashman/ Ivan Pace
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp vs. Byron Murphy Jr. and Stephon Gilmore
Game Analysis:
First off, thoughts and prayers to those impacted by the fires in California. Those fires caused this game to be moved from Los Angeles to Arizona. With that being said, this is a great finale for our Wild Card weekend. Minnesota is absurdly the 5th seed at 14-3, which is less than ideal for the Rams. Minnesota’s offense is what you’d expect under the guidance of Kevin O’Connell. Although they can put up points in a hurry, it’s the defense that’s taken the league by surprise. They have two players in the top 10 for sacks and one in the top 5 for interceptions. This unit puts pressure on opposing offenses and forces mistakes that the offense takes advantage of. For Los Angeles, they overcame an abysmal start to the season. Their offense is full of talented playmakers and they showed the ability to keep up with high powered offenses throughout the season. Defensively, they are led by a trio of young talented pass rushers that prevent opposing quarterbacks from getting comfortable. This game will be a fun one between two offensive minded genius head coaches. The Rams will keep it close, especially with their championship pedigree. In the end, Minnesota will bounce back from their blowout loss and the rams will have a hard time containing Justin Jefferson. The Rams will put up their fair share of points but I expect them to lose the turnover battle and come up just short in the 4th quarter. Look out for Justin Jefferson to be griddying his way into the next round.
Prediction: Rams 28 Vikings 23
As I said before, we’re in for a great weekend. Narratives will be created, reaffirmed, and destroyed. Nobody will become a legend purely based on their Wild Card weekend performances, but this is where it all starts. I am excited to see what happens in these games. I am rooting for good games as opposed to strictly hoping for my picks to be right. With that being said, a good mix of both wouldn’t be opposed by me. Enjoy the games and I will see you all in a week for the Divisional Round.