NBA Contenders or Pretenders
We’re hitting the home stretch of the NBA season. In October we were all thrilled for basketball to be back. We watched games with our family’s on Christmas Day, made it through the dog days of the season, advanced through All-Star weekend, and now we’re nearly at playoff time. Stars will begin to create their legacies or contribute to an already established dynasty. Dreams will be made, broken, and placed on hold for later seasons. The league is so talented and so many teams are fun to watch, so I wanted to stick my neck out and say which teams I believe to be true contenders.
We all know, there will still be movement amongst the seeds in the final few weeks. However, as of now I am going through the top six teams in each conference and seeing which teams are true contenders. Every year we see teams coast through the regular season and make noise in the playoffs while being a higher seed. The opposite has also shown to be true, teams can overperform in the regular season and then lay an egg in the postseason. That is why I am attempting to predict which current playoff teams are contenders and which are pretenders. Being a pretender can be for various reasons. The most common presumption as that a pretender is a fraud. This can be true, but some of the teams below are pretenders because they are young. Some teams have great seasons, but are just a season or two behind for when they’ll be true contenders.
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have dominated the regular season and have looked like the best team in the NBA. As stated above, teams can overperform in the regular season but the Celtics don’t look like one of those teams. In my opinion Boston has the best starting five in all of basketball. Starting off of course with their MVP candidate Jayson Tatum, who is averaging 27, 8, and 5. Outside of Tatum, Jaylen Brown adds another dynamic scorer, Jrue Holiday adds championship pedigree and another lock down defender, Derrick White is their do it all guy, and Kristaps Porzingis is the X-Factor. to All five starters average 12+ points, including Brown, Tatum, and Porzingis all averaging over 20 points per game.
This team gets it done on both sides of the ball. The Boston Celtics are 1st in offensive rating and 3rd in defensive rating. Their dynamic offense gets a lot of the attention, but their defense is stifling. While Derrick White and Jrue Holiday rightfully get a lot of this credit, all five starters hold their ground and come up with huge defensive plays in big moments. An undervalued piece of the Celtics puzzle is the versatility on both sides of the ball. All their starters and some of their bench players can score from both the outside and inside, making them tough to guard. Defensively the Celtics can play lineups where they can switch on screens without losing defensive competency. Their versatility keeps the team from being in tough positions.
It’s time to talk about X-Factor Porzingis and how this could be the Celtics’ Achilles heel. The Kristaps addition is what has really taken the Celtics to the next level this year. He added a lethal scorer to the 5 position for Boston that has truly opened up their offense. On the defensive side, he adds a rim protector and keep that side of the ball versatile. However, you can’t talk about Porzingis without mentioning his injury history. What makes matters worse is that the Celtics don’t particularly have a deep bench. All teams are an injury away from being out of contention, but I think this is more true for Boston than most teams. Al Horford and Xavier Tillman could attempt to fill Kristaps’ void, but an injury to any other position would be deadly. I think Boston has a solid bench, but they lack a dynamic scorer that could step into a starting roll in the playoffs. As a basketball fan, my fingers are crossed that the Celts stay healthy. They are the favorites and will provide us with great basketball for the next few months!
Verdict: Contender
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have been grabbing headlines since the offseason. Making the acquisition to pair Giannis with Damian Lillard immediately made the Bucks one of the favorites in the Eastern Conference. Outside of the Dame trade, the only notable roster changes were adding Malik Beasley and Patrick Beverley to the roster. Unfortunately for Milwaukee it has not been all sunshine and rainbows since they traded for Damian Lillard. They fired first year head coach Adrian Griffin despite starting 30-13. That was a top record in the east, but the team had underlying struggles. Those struggles have not yet been made public, but the Doc Rivers tenure didn’t start off great either. This is to be expected with a new coach and the team has picked up some big wins as of late. Although, it’s safe to say that the Bucks won’t be happy unless the success remains consistent. Doc has a sketchy playoff history in his own right, so he will be feeling the pressure come playoff time.
Unlike some teams on this list, the Bucks have some solid depth. Of course, Giannis and Dame will be the most vital to Milwaukee’s success. I also think we haven’t even seen a fraction of how dangerous their two man game will be in crunch time. It would be foolish to overlook the supporting pieces that make the Bucks elite. Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis both stretch the floor, which is so important when playing with a non shooter like Giannis. On top of their shooting, Lopez adds some shot blocking and Portis adds the wild man factor to this team. The biggest surprise so far has been Malik Beasley. He can be added to a long list of Lakers in the Lebron era that have found more success after leaving LA. Beasley has been shooting a scorching 44% from 3 on 6.6 attempts per game. His shooting adds another threat from deep and more spacing to an offense that thrived on both items. Finally, it would be a crime to not mention the veteran pieces on this team. Jae Crowder, Pat Connaughton, and Patrick Beverley add to this roster and are players I’m comfortable having to play in key places in the post season. While I wouldn’t rely on all these players every night, we’ve seen these players step up in big spots before.
You might all be thinking that I forgot about Khris Middleton. Guess again. Khris Middleton is and will continue to be the X-Factor for this Bucks team. I think we all know what to expect from Dame and Giannis. If Middleton can return to his 2021 form or even 90% of that, it will open up a new variable for the Bucks. That would give Milwaukee a third player that could create his own shot. As we stand right now, we haven’t seen that Khris Middleton. He is currently averaging 15 points in 26 minutes. However, I think the Bucks are slowly revving him up to be full go for the playoffs. Based on their coaching and roster moves, the Bucks are all in on this season. They will be no doubt competing for a championship. When you have Giannis Antetokounmpo on your team, your title hopes are always alive.
Verdict: Contender
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs have not gotten the attention they deserve this season. They were 11-9 through the first 20 games of the regular season and recovered strong going on a streak where they won 17/18 games. This winning streak occurred largely without two of their stars, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Donovan Mitchell has proven to be an electric player, just like he had in previous seasons, and Jarret Allen has had a resurgent year. This team can light it up offensively. They have 6 players averaging 12+ ppg and another 6 players shooting 35% or better from beyond the arc (not including Max Strus at 34%). On the other end, they are 2nd in defensive rating. When it comes to the Cavaliers defense, Isaac Okoro and Dean Wade have earned a shoutout for their efforts on the defensive side of the ball.
The offseason additions by this organization were not flashy or memorable. However, I think they were exactly what this team needed. Adding Max Strus and Georges Niang truly made the Cavs a much larger threat from deep. They are currently top 10 in three pointers made this season, which is an improvement from last year to say the least. This shooting will keep the Cavs in any series they appear in. In today’s NBA you have to shoot the three to compete, and if you can’t then you’re behind the times.
It is definitely worrisome remembering the playoff performance by this Cleveland team last year. Another worry is the fit of Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen together. Unfortunately, Mobley has not made the progression as a 3-point shooter that we all hoped he would. He is currently shooting 33% from 3 on less than one attempt per game. He has the ability to knock it down from deep, but he is not a major threat our there. Overall, the spacing issues and potential ghosts from last year will keep the Cavaliers from truly making noise this postseason. Donovan Mitchell will go nuclear in a few games, but the Cavs are not true contenders for a title.
Verdict: Pretender
New York Knicks
This might have been the hardest team for me to evaluate. For starters, I absolutely love the Knicks roster. I have to start with Jalen Brunson. The Villanova product has easily been one of the best stories over the past two NBA seasons. This season Brunson has taken it to the next level averaging 27 point and 6 assists per game on 47% shooting. The additions of OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Precious Achiuwa added shooting, versatility, and defense to the roster. The Knicks also have three guys that don’t get enough credit starring in their roles this season. Those players are Josh Hart, Donte Divincenzo, and Isaiah Hartenstein. They may be unsung heroes but the defensive effort of Hart, shooting of Donte, and quality play have helped the Knicks stay alive through injuries.
Speaking of injuries, the Knicks are dying to get get Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson back from injury. Julius is an All-Star player that provides size and playmaking on the offensive end. While the people of New York have various opinions of him, they are certainly missing his 24, 9, and 5 per game averages. When it comes to OG, he had the Knicks’ faithful ecstatic after the trade. His defense is what is most valuable, but pouring in 15 points per game with his shooting and athleticism is so fun to watch. The praise for Hartenstein and Achiuwa is most deserved, but Robinson is so electric. His athleticism makes him a lob threat and an incredible rim protector. I hope he is able to come back this season to anchor a defense that has OG and Josh Hart making life miserable for opposing offenses.
Like I said, the verdict on this one is truly so difficult. A main factor is getting Randle, OG, and Robinson back from injury. The important details are if/when they come back and how effective they can be. These are three starters that can extend or destroy the Knicks playoffs chance. Another thing to look at is Tom Thibodeau. Thibs has also had his fair share of issues in the playoffs, mainly revolving around burnout from his players. Thankfully the Knicks don’t have a single player in the top 10 in minutes per game this season. It looks like Thibodeau has learned from past mistakes, but we’ll see if any Knicks players are worn down come playoff time. This last piece kills me, however, each year we see the the game slow down and games are really defined in the last 3 minutes. I don’t know if the Knicks have the star power to compete with some of these other teams. If it comes down to Brunson/ Randle versus Giannis, Tatum, Embiid, etc. I would have to give those other teams the end. I would love to see Brunson and the Knicks prove me wrong, but as of now I don’t think New York has what it takes to be true title contenders.
Verdict: Pretender
Orlando Magic
Let’s be honest, the Orlando Magic theme song has been stuck in all of our heads. Seeing it all over social media has been fantastic. This is a franchise that has been perennially stuck between the lottery and at most an 8 seed for over a decade. Paolo Banchero is leading the charge for the Magic and made his first All-Star team this season. Paolo is averaging 22.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists this season. The combination of size and skill in Paolo make him a force, possibly even a future MVP candidate, which is something Orlando hasn’t had since Dwight Howard. Franz Wagner also is averaging right around 20 a game to assist his teammate. This is one of the most promising, young duos in the league and they will greatly benefit from their first taste of postseason basketball.
The supporting case for Orlando is also very young. Jalen Suggs is starting to come into his own on both sides of the court for the Magic. If the NBA had an all-effort team, Suggs would easily be first team. This is a guy who gives constant effort while shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Another guy on Orlando that is full of effort is Mo Wagner. The center duo of Wendell Carter and Mo Wagner aren’t flashy, but they get the job done. Both players are averaging around 11 points per game and represent the inside presence for the Magic. Other notable players on the Magic are Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, and Joe Ingles. These players each bring something different to the table for this Magic team.
The big thing that’s missing in Orlando is three point shooting. This will likely be something they look to add through the draft/ free agency as well as develop the shooting of players currently on the roster. In the modern era of NBA basketball, you have to be able to hit threes. This will be a major hindrance for Orlando as they look to progress in the postseason. I’ll say this about a handful of teams later on. This postseason for Orlando is about getting playoff experience. The team should go in looking to gain experience, figure out their rotation, and have fun. The Magic are a year away from true contention in this league. They can make some noise and potentially even win a first round series, but they will not truly contend until later down the line. Enjoy this season Orlando, and look forward to a bright future.
Verdict: Pretender
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is another team that will be very exciting to watch in the playoffs. When you tune into a Pacers game, get ready for a track meet as opposed to a basketball game. The Pacers are currently 2nd in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating. Tyrese Haliburton currently averages 20 points and 11 assists per game. The 20 points per game he averages will not blow you away, but he is a player that can quickly score 10+ points in a matter of minutes when he’s feeling it from deep. The addition of Pascal Siakam adds another elite offensive weapon to the Pacers roster. Averaging 20 points, Siakam adds championship experience to the Pacers to go with the production they now get from him. The final core piece to this team is Myles Turner. Turner has the ability to stretch the floor and also has 1.8 blocks per game to anchor the defense. As stated earlier, the defense for Indiana is a weakness. However that does not fall on Turner’s shoulders.
Outside of the core three Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, and Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell and Jalen Smith round out the main rotation for Indiana. The recent, season-ending injury to Benedict Mathurin really hurts the production the Pacers got from their bench. Mathurin averaged 14.5 points per game and provided confidence and production off the bench. I would deeply regret not mentioning the redemption story that is going on for Aaron Nesmith this season. After struggling to find minutes throughout his tenure in Boston, Nesmith is now averaging double digit points, shooting 44% from three, and adds toughness defensively for Indiana. When push comes to shove, Indiana are not true contenders. You have to play some level of defense to win championships in the NBA, and Indiana does not do that. The loss of Mathurin also hurts the potent offense that Indiana relies on to win games. I will enjoy watching the Pacers and their offensive juggernaut, but they will not be able to compete with the best teams the East this year. This team will add some defensive help in the offseason and head into the 2024-2025 season ready for revenge.
Verdict: Pretender
Outside The Top Six
Philadelphia 76ers
This can be summed up in one question. Will Joel Embiid be healthy when mid April rolls around? The latest update still has no timetable for return but he has resumed on-court workouts. This 76ers team has some interesting story lines and the emergence of Tyrese Maxey is first and foremost. Maxey is a front runner for Most Improved Player as he’s taken advantage of the void left by James Harden. His numbers have increased to 25.8 points per game along with 6.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds. His development is really exciting for Philly, as is the trade deadline move to acquire Buddy Hield. Buddy brings a truly dynamic shooter to the line up to help a team that currently ranks 26th in the league in 3 pointers made per game. Another thing I don’t want to overlook is hiring Nick Nurse to be the head coach of the 76ers. Nurse is a proven championship coach that can help Philly take that next step.
I could talk about some other players like Kelly Oubre, Tobia Harris, Paul Reed, DeAthony Melton, etc., but it all comes down to Embiid’s health. Joel is averaging 35 points, 11 boards, and 5 assists this season. The man was in line to potentially win back to back MVPs. This is the type of player that wins you championships. Similar to some other teams I’ve talked about, the Sixers do have some playoff ghosts. However, the emergence of Tyrese Maxey, hiring of Nick Nurse, and Joel Embiid’s pre-injury play give me confidence that they can overcome these past failures. This is a tentative yes, depending on Embiid’s playoff status, but a healthy Embiid means the 76ers have a chance to win it all this year.
Verdict: Contender
Miami Heat
I cannot remember an NBA team that takes the regular season less serious than the Miami Heat do. I will not even mention this season’s stats for Miami, since we all know regular season Miami Heat and postseason Miami Heat are completely different teams. Last year the Heat were in the play-in tournament, lost to Atlanta, and then barely beat Chicago to get the 8-Seed. They then upset the first seeded Milwaukee Bucks and made it to the NBA Finals. The entire East will be scared to face Miami after seeing what they were able to accomplish last season. This year’s Heat team is healthier and deeper than last year’s team. We know the menace that is Jimmy Butler when the playoffs start. He will trash talk and be a problem on both ends of the floor for opposing teams. Bam Adebayo is another known commodity. His offense, defense, and rebounding will always put Miami in the best position possible. The X-Factor is whether Bam’s floaters/mid-range shots are falling. We’ve seen the Miami offense sink or thrive based on those shots.
Now it’s time to talk about pieces that were missing from Miami in last years playoffs. First off is Tyler Herro, who is the definition of a heat check guy. He averages more than the average heat check guy, but Herro is the player that gets the ball at the end of a possession to attempt to save it. He was hurt for a majority of the postseason last year and the impact was felt. Next up is Terry Rozier, the addition of Rozier added more scoring and playmaking to a team that desperately needed it. He hasn’t played his best ball since arriving to Miami but he is a clear improvement over Kyle Lowry. Finally we have Jaime Jaquez, the rookie out of UCLA. After watching Jaime destroy teams in March while at UCLA, it’s easy to see why the Heat took one of the older players in the draft in Jaquez. It’s always dangerous to rely on rookies in the playoffs, but Eric Spoelstra is trusting the rookie enough to run offense through him. That is a glowing stamp of approval if I’ve ever seen one. The additions of Herro, Rozier, and Jaquez will help ensure the Heat do not run into the same problems offensively they had in The Finals against Denver last year.
Players like Haywood Highsmith, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, and Kevin Love all play pivotal roles on this Miami team. These roles aren’t as vital and their minutes will be less than last year’s playoff run, but they are still important to the Miami Heat’s postseason success in 2024. Having these players in more specified roles as opposed to the roles they played last year are key indications as to why the Heat must be taken seriously again this season. Miami is and should be feared by the other Eastern Conference teams as they look to cause havoc in the playoffs again. It may be March and the playoffs run from April-June, but the Miami Heat make it seem like October as they turn into their opponent’s worst nightmare.
Verdict: Contender
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder
Here is another team that the advanced statistics love. The Thunder currently ranked 3rd offensively and 5th defensively. Adding to this, they are number one in TS% at 61.1% and 4th in assist/turnover ratio. Many people loved this team at the start of the season and they did not disappoint. Their big three of Shai Gilegeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren have all taken big steps heading into this season. Shai is a legit MVP candidate at 31 point per game with 6 assists, and 5 rebounds. Chet is averaging 2.4 blocks per game and on the verge of rookie of the year. Then there’s Jalen Williams, who provides scoring along with some solid perimeter defense and is shooting an incredible 53% from the field.
Outside of the obvious big names there is Josh Giddey and Lu Dort. Giddey provides a hub offensively that can facilitate for others and create for himself, while being a reliable rebounder. Then of course there is Lu Dort AKA the Dorture Chamber. Dort continues to be a menace defensively and has improved to a 40% 3 point shooter on 5 attempts per game. I would feel bad if I went through this team without mentioning Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe. These two are shooting 40% from three and provide much needed scoring off the bench.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are here to stay for a long time. This year offers the question of, is this a year too early or are they true contenders? One glaring question is both the lack of playoff experience for this Thunder team and not having a true back up big man for the playoffs. Adding a guy like Daniel Gafford would have filled a roster hole that is still glaring. I think the lack of experience is a problem but this team is too good to not be taken seriously. They may be a year too soon team, but I would not be surprised to see OKC competing in the Western Conference finals this year. Shai will keep them in games offensively and their defense will make life miserable for opposing teams. Don’t sleep on the Thunder simply because of their age.
Verdict: Contender
Denver Nuggets
I know this is a new page, so let me introduce you to a Biasedly Unbiased Sports Law. The reigning champions are the team to beat or a contender until proven otherwise. It is safe to say that nobody has proven the Nuggets to be frauds this season. Nikola Jokic is yet again having another MVP caliber season as he averages a near triple double. He continues to be the hub that this Denver offense runs through and puts defenses in near impossible scenarios. They either choose to double Jokic where he’ll always find the open man, or leave him one on one and let him cook. It’s truly a lose-lose situation.
We could talk about Jokic for hours and still not truly appreciate his greatness. However, the starting 5 for the Nuggets are an elite unit and deserve some love. Kentavious Caldwell Pope and Aaron Gordon are unsung heroes that provide defense and fill respective roles offensively. KCP is shooting 39.9% from 3 and averaging 1.4 steals per game. Aaron Gordon plays his role better than almost anyone in the league. Gordon plays hard on both sides of the ball and has a real connection with Jokic in that dunker spot. Jamaal Murray is averaging 20 plus point per game again this season. The scary thing for the rest of the league is that Murray has proven he can take it to the next level in the playoffs. Michael Porter Jr. is the fifth starter and is a true X-Factor. Averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, and is shooting 40% from three. He is incredible streaky and nearly makes the Nuggets unbeatable when he is firing on all cylinders.
The big question for the Nuggets will be their bench. The starting five for Denver are elite, but the bench is where people may worry about this squad. The main contributors off the bench this season have been Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson. Reggie Jackson is a veteran guard that can provide scoring off the bench. Braun and Watson are younger pieces but vital to this team’s success. CB showed us what he can do in the playoffs last year and plays efficiently on both offense and defense. He is a tough-nosed defender and constantly moving on offense making him a constant recipient of passes from Jokic. Peyton Watson is a player that has been a pleasant surprise. His athleticism makes him a problem on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I feel like the bench production is enough especially considering the fire power coming from the Nuggets starting five. This team is dynamic and after their recent win over Boston, has to be the favorites going into the postseason.
Verdict: Contender
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are a team that have truly silenced the critics this season. Minnesota traded for Rudy Gobert before the 2022-2023 season and gave up an unprecedented haul to the Utah Jazz. Last season did not pan out the way the Timberwolves front office had anticipated. The spacing of having two 7-footers was a struggle to say the least. Many were calling the Gobert trade one of the worst in NBA history. The verdict is still out on the trade, but this season is starting to change up the narrative a bit.
Anthony Edwards is the catalyst for this Timberwolves team. He is averaging 26 points per game and is on the brink of superstar status. Karl Anthony Towns continues to stretch the floor for this squad as Gobert anchors the middle defensively, averaging 2 blocks per game. Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, and Naz Reid all play pivotal pieces on this Minnesota team. Conley brings some experience, McDaniels is a great perimeter defender, and Naz is an electric sixth man. The Timberwolves are the top rated team defensively, making it difficult for teams to put up points against them. As some of the younger players develop more offensively,
One issue with this team is obviously the KAT injury. Without Towns, the T-Wolves are missing a second option offensively. Edwards is dynamic offensively, but this team will struggle to score if KAT is unable to come back for the postseason. This is a team that currently ranks 18th in the NBA offensively. Their defensive prowess will keep them in games, but a lack of offense will keep this team from winning it all. This one is difficult because the talent is there and Anthony Edwards is one of my favorite players to watch, but they are not true contenders this year. They should use this postseason as more experience and look to add a Jordan Clarkson/ Malik Monk type of player to provide scoring off the bench in the offseason.
Verdict: Pretender
Los Angeles Clippers
Health and ghosts of playoffs past, I could end it here. However, the Clippers have been great this season and deserve some praise. The trade for James Harden has completely changed the outlook for this team heading into the postseason. We don’t see as many teams in this era go with a legitimate big three. This Clippers squad has a true big three in Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden. Since joining the Clippers, Harden has got Ivica Zubac more involved and has been throwing lob after lob to the big man. Zubac is averaging a career high 11.3 points and Harden setting the table for him cannot be overlooked. Of course, the star duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard need their flowers as well. Both players are averaging 22+ points per game and 1.5+ steals per game. This duo is a terror on both ends of the court which has become the norm in Los Angeles. While there are other players working hard for this team, Norman Powell is the one that has been truly incredible this year. He is averaging 14.1 points per game and his impact is even larger than that. He is a clear candidate for 6th man of the year and ensures the Clippers still have offensive fire power when the starters go to the bench. Let’s not forget about Russell Westbrook. I am hoping he is able to come back fully healthy from the hand injury he recently sustained. Russ has truly bought into his bench role this year and provides valuable minutes running the bench squad for LA.
Now here is where the questions marks come in. First off, can this team stay healthy? Kawhi has missed playoff games as recently as last season. The Clips are not a very deep team, so even an injury to a non-starter would negatively impact their rotation. Outside of the injuries we have the prior playoff struggle for James Harden and Paul George. The struggles for PG have not been as drastic, but he has never played well enough to get his team over the hump. Additionally, nobody' has had their playoffs struggle documented as much as James Harden. We have seen drastic drops in his stats come April/May each year and some experts say he is “afraid of the moment.” A counterpoint to that is that Harden is the 3rd scoring option and can simply focus on setting the table for his teammates. While The Beard and PG13 have struggled in the playoffs, we have seen Kawhi dominate in the postseason. His playoff domination has led to championships and clutch performances. I don’t believe the “ghosts of playoffs past” will haunt this Clippers team. Their ability to score and have perimeter defenders to make life difficult are a deadly combo. They will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs as long as they can stay healthy.
Verdict: Contender
New Orleans Pelicans
I will say this about the Pelicans, I am excited to watch them in the playoffs. This team was the 8 seed in the playoffs a couple seasons ago and took the Suns to six games in the first round of the 2022 playoffs. That team was missing Zion and players like Herb Jones and Trey Murphy were rookies. Zion Williamson has clearly not reached his full potential quite yet. The budding superstar is averaging 22.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. I would love to see those rebounding numbers increase. However his playmaking is fantastic when the Pelicans have him playing the “Point Zion” role. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum are the other two stars on the team that help balance out this New Orleans squad. Brandon Ingram is one of the most underrated players in the league and can take over on nights where Zion is struggling. CJ has increased his three point attempts this season and adds a deep threat where Zion and BI struggle.
This is a team that ranks eleventh in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating. Jonas Valanciunas anchors this team both offensively and defensively. Trey Murphy and Herb Jones provide the 3 and D role and they excel in their roles. Alvarado adds scrappiness to the defensive end of the floor and will undoubtedly provide solid minutes off the bench in any playoff series. I also believe in Jordan Hawkins and his future in the league, he has shown flashes so far during his rookie season. However, as we’ve seen through the years, it’s difficult to rely on rookie minutes in the playoffs. As I stated earlier, I will be tuning into every Pelicans game I can this postseason. I just feel this team will be figuring their rotations out and using this season as experience rather than attempting to truly contend.
Verdict: Pretender
Phoenix Suns
Like the Clippers, the Suns are one of the few NBA teams that are following the “Big Three” model. The trio of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal provide enough fire power to keep the Suns in any game. Kevin Durant is nearly shooting at 50/40/90 splits (currently 85% from the charity stripe). His running mate Devin Booker is averaging 27 points per game to go with a career high 6.9 assists per game. The offensive greatness of both these players have been covered in great detail throughout their careers, so I will not go too deeply into either of them. Bradley Beal is the third of this trio and the one that currently has the biggest question mark. The 30 year old is averaging 18 points and has only played in 44 games this season. To make a deep run, Phoenix will need the entirety of their big three to be healthy and firing on all cylinders.
Outside of the big three, the supporting cast for this Phoenix squad is much better than it was a year ago. Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen provide much needed spacing and additional scoring. Eric Gordon is a veteran who has never quite gotten the praise he deserves. He is still providing scoring in his mid-thirties and will represent another experienced playoff scorer to this team in the postseason. The Grayson Allen renaissance has been a surprise to say the least. The Duke product is shooting a scorching 47.8% from beyond the arc and averaging a career high 13.5 points per game this season. These two shooters will help prevent defenses from helping off Durant and Booker. Jusuf Nurkic is another key piece to this squad. The big man is averaging a double-double and continues to prove he’s a capable facilitator from the center position. Health has been an issue for Nurkic in the past and Phoenix is a team that lacks another option at the center position if an injury occurs. Finally, this brings us to Phoenix’s recent trade acquisition, Royce O’Neal. O’Neal adds another shooter that puts effort into the defensive side of the court as well. He isn’t as elite of a shooter as Allen and Gordon, so Royce knocking down open shots in the playoffs will be pivotal to both his playing time and the success of this Phoenix team.
This Phoenix team represents a team that has underperformed due to health in the regular season, but you don’t want to see them come playoff time. They are flipping between the 6th and 7th seed right now, so imagine finishing 2nd or 3rd in the west and then having to play Durant and Booker in your first round series. This team will be their supporting pieces to knock down threes to open up space for their big three to go to work. This team has their work cut out for them, but will be hard to beat in the final minutes of games. On top of needing good shooting from deep, this team also needs to stay in these games through the first 3.5 quarters. Even though the clutch numbers for this team are lackluster, it will be hard to beat KD and Book when crunch time comes knocking in the playoffs.
Verdict: Contender
Contenders Outside the Top Six
None
There are teams in the 7-10 range in the West that I could see making some noise. However, none of them are true contenders this season due to the severe flaws that each team has. Don’t get me wrong, having to play Steph Curry, Lebron James, Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, or Kyrie Irving in the playoffs will be no fun task. The teams around these stars have just severely underperformed and some of the names listed above are nearing the end or have reached the end of their prime. I could be wrong, but I am expecting the West to be an arms race between the Nuggets, Thunder, Clippers, and Suns.
Recap
As with any prediction or preview, there is a chance that I am wrong on a lot of my contender/pretender picks. Year after year the NBA playoffs shock us with upsets and teams like the 2022-203 Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers make unexpected runs deep into the playoffs. That is why we all enjoy it so much! Below is a recap of the teams I listed as contender/ pretenders:
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics: Contender
Milwaukee Bucks: Contender
Cleveland Cavaliers: Pretender
New York Knicks: Pretender
Orlando Magic: Pretender
Indiana Pacers: Pretender
Philadelphia 76ers: Contender
Miami Heat: Contender
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder: Contender
Denver Nuggets: Contender
Minnesota Timberwolves: Pretender
Los Angeles Clippers: Contender
New Orleans Pelicans: Pretender
Phoenix Suns: Contender
As always give me a follow on twitter @unbiasedlysports and feel free to comment with where you agree or disagree with my predictions!