NBA Playoffs: Round 1 Preview and Predictions
East
Celtics vs. Heat
The Boston Celtics ran through the regular season with ease and are deservedly the favorites to win the NBA Finals. They should be thrilled with how the season has gone so far. However, I don’t think they’re thrilled to see the Miami Heat in the first round. The Heat represent ghosts that haunt Boston’s past, although since this is a new Boston team they may be unaffected by their history. Unfortunately, it looks like Jimmy Butler will miss some games due to his right knee injury. The Heat didn’t seem to miss him too much against the Bulls, but it would certainly be foolish to compare the Bulls to the Celtics. Without Butler, I must say it was nice to see supporting cast members of the Heat come up big. These teams meeting in the playoffs for the third year in a row will be must see TV.
Celtics X-Factor: Bench Scoring
Heat X-Factor: Three Point Shooting
The Celtics will obviously be the favorite for this series. The Jimmy Butler injury is huge as well as the questionable status of mid-season addition “Scary” Terry Rozier. Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and company will play their hearts out and make the series interesting. With that being said, this is not the same Celtics team as last year. They have the best starting five in basketball and their bench has been serviceable despite not having a true sixth man. When the Celtics are getting production from their bench they become nearly unbeatable. The Heat will match up this series, but ultimately I believe the Celtics will be too much for Miami to handle.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
Knicks vs. 76ers
This series will be electric from Game 1 until the end. We get to watch two cities that generally love basketball. Each game will be rocking for two teams that have legitimate home court advantages. Madison Square Garden is the mecca of NBA basketball and Philadelphia is dying to see their beloved Sixers make a deep playoff run. From a neutral fan perspective, both fan bases will boo their teams if they start losing - which is bound to be fun to watch.
Knicks X-Factor: Divincenzo and Bogdanovic Shooting
76ers X-Factor: Joel Embiid’s Health
In the end, Joel Embiid’s health is the pivotal point of this series. After watching the Sixers’ play-in win against Miami, you could tell the former MVP was not 100%. For the Knicks, they are not the same team without Julius Randle. Jalen Brunson has been dominant this season and is one of the best stories in the NBA. I believe the scoring depth of the Sixers (Maxey, Hield, Oubre, Harris) against the defense of Josh Hart and OG Anunoby will be an incredible matchup. However, I think this series will come down to Embiid’s health. If Joel never got injured, the 76ers were likely the 2nd or 3rd seed in the East. However, I think he is not quite healthy enough and the Knicks will be able to make life difficult for the Philadelphia offense. This series will be close but I believe the Knicks will eventually pull away.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
Bucks vs. Pacers
This is one of the more interesting series in the first round. The Bucks have won before and are a much more veteran team as compared to the youth of the Indiana Pacers. This is not the series we thought we’d get between these two squads back in February. Giannis is injured and Indiana star Tyrese Haliburton has not been the same since the All Star break. To add more interest to this series, we have the scuffle that happened between Giannis and the Pacers over a game ball earlier this season.
Bucks X-Factor: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Health
Pacers X-Factor: Which Haliburton shows up?
Another series that will be closer than some expect, Giannis’s status remains up in the air and will be a critical factor to the outcome of this series. I hate to be a “Debbie Downer” and focus on injuries, but another huge injury is Benedict Mathurin for Indiana. A pure scorer that gave Indiana some oomph off the bench. I think the offensive ability of Haliburton, Siakam, and Turner will keep the Pacers in this game. Aaron Nesmith also deserves a shoutout for his stellar play on both sides of the ball for Indiana. Overall, I expect Damian Lillard to lead an injured, experienced Bucks team to a series win. The Pacers will make every game fun, but their defense is ready to win playoff games.
Prediction: Bucks in 6
Cavaliers vs. Magic
Thankfully, this series has no major injuries thus far, and also features two intriguing teams. The Cavs at one point this season were the hottest team in the NBA. They limped to the finish line a bit and are facing off against the up and coming Magic. The Cavaliers have demons from last year’s playoff loss to the Knicks and have Donovan Mitchell’s potential exit this offseason looming over their head. Orlando may be a common case of a team that’s a year away. I expect them to come out swinging but you never know how a team will respond in their first playoff experience.
Cavaliers X-Factor: Bench Scoring
Magic X-Factor: Scoring from players besides Paolo Banchero
As I mentioned earlier, the Cavs have some clear question marks. With that being said, they added three point shooters in Max Strus and Georges Niang this offseason. For the Magic, Paolo Banchero looks like he may be one of the faces of this league. He will be a tough cover for any and all Cleveland defenders. This playoffs has the potential to be the official “Welcome to Stardom” moment for Banchero if he can go on a run. Both these teams have stellar defenses but the Magic struggle offensively, primarily when Paolo is doubled or on the bench. When push comes to shove, I think the Cavs will win this series. Donovan Mitchell is the best player in this series and I believe Orlando will struggle to score.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 6
West
Thunder vs. Pelicans
Time to see the young Thunder play some playoff basketball. They are a team that don’t have many veteran players that play meaningful minutes, so this will be an interesting test for their guys. They are a team that is elite on both ends of the floor. By advanced stats, they shouldn’t have any issues. One thing that sticks out regarding this series is the unfortunate injury to Zion Williamson. The one thing that would provide comfort to the Pelicans is the series they had against the Suns a couple of years ago, which was also without Zion. The Pelicans will need to win this series before they can hopefully get their young star back in action
Thunder X-Factor: 3 Point Shooting
Pelicans X-Factor: Creating Turnovers
This series would have a completely different outlook if Zion Williamson were healthy. The cruel world we live in did not allow us to enjoy that series. I think the firepower of SGA, Chet, and Jaylin Williams will be too much for the Pelicans to handle. The play this season of Shai Gilgeous- Alexander has not been getting enough media attention this season. His offensive game speaks for itself, but not enough attention is given to his defensive efforts (2.0 steals per game). I think the Pelicans will be scrappy and they won’t die easy. Herb Jones is a defensive fiend and Brandon Ingram and company definitely have games where they get hot. In the end, Oklahoma City will move onto the Second Round.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
Nuggets vs. Lakers
A rematch of last season’s Western Conference Finals. I’m not entirely sure if this series will be close, but it will definitely get a lot media attention. In fact, it will get too much media attention - but that is a conversation for another day. The Lakers got swept in this series last season, but all four games were relatively close. LA had incredible seasons from LeBron and Anthony Davis. An underrated piece of their season was the play of D’Angelo Russell. For the Nuggets, it was business as usual during the regular season. They are not scared of the Lakers in Round 1 and have their eyes set on a much larger goal.
Nuggets X-Factor: Michael Porter Jr.
Lakers X-Factor: 3 Point Shooting
Los Angeles played this season with healthy versions of both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. While their seasons were fantastic, the season for the organization in general was underwhelming to say the least. As of now, I do not believe the Lakers are true contenders and not sure they can win 16 games this postseason. With that being said, you are never truly out of it when you have LeBron and AD. The Nuggets are looking to repeat and will view any non-title results as a failure. This is a team where everyone knows what their role is and they excel in their positions. Not to mention Nikola Jokic and his pure dominance. The two time MVP, soon to be three time, rolls out of bed each morning and puts up a triple double. As seen above, Michael Porter Jr. is a massive X-Factor for Denver. He doesn’t provide a ton of value outside of scoring. When he’s hitting his shots, he makes Denver nearly unbeatable. The Lakers may make some games closer but the Nuggets will run away with this series.
Prediction: Nuggets in 5
Timberwolves vs. Suns
Here’s an interesting series where the lower seed will be favored to win. I am absolutely crushed that these two teams are playing in the first round, I think these teams both could win a series or more in the playoffs. The Suns have Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, which make them hard to bet against. That doesn’t include Bradley Beal and the hot shooting duo of Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon. For the Timberwolves, they enter the playoffs on a bit of a losing stretch. They dropped from the 1 Seed to the 3 Seed in the West. They were missing Karl Anthony-Towns for the latter half of the season. I am very excited to see KD and Book, two proven stars, go up against one of the brightest young stars in the league in Anthony Edwards.
Timberwolves X-Factor: KAT Offensive/Defensive Flexibility
Suns X-Factor: Bench Minutes
The Timberwolves are ready to make some serious noise in the playoffs this year, while the Suns have gone all in on their team this year. One of the big factors in this series will be the size discrepancy between these two teams. With two seven footers, KAT and Gobert, the Timberwolves should be able to dominate both the offensive and defensive glass. This will be a tough spot for Phoenix but they’ll have to take advantage of the seven footers with KD and their quicker players when the Suns are on offense. I have gone back and forth several times on this, because you know Kevin Durant will dominate some of these games. Even so, this is the year Anthony Edwards breaks out. The Timberwolves will play hard defense on the Phoenix stars and they will win this competitive series.
Prediction: Timberwolves in 7
Clippers vs. Mavericks
Clippers vs Mavericks are yet another tremendous series. The star power and recent history are making this series a must watch. The Clippers defeated the Mavericks in both the 2020 and 2021 playoffs. The Clippers were favored both years, but younger versions of Luka Doncic gave the Clippers all they could handle. Those series went six and seven games respectively. Unfortunately there is another injury for a star player we must discuss for this matchup. Kawhi Leonard has doubt over his availability for the beginning of the series. The Clippers star has proven to be one of the best players in the NBA when healthy. Unfortunately, he has not found himself as healthy as he would like. LA has James Harden and Paul George to make up for this loss. On the other side, the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are looking to make a deep playoff run themselves. This may just be the most complete team that the Luke-Era Mavericks have ever had.
Clippers X-Factor: Kawhi Leonard’s Health
Mavericks X-Factor: 3 Point Shooting
I think this series goes seven games, plain and simple. As always, there is a very real chance that I’m wrong. However, with the star power the Mavs and Clippers possess, each team will likely have a game where they are unstoppable offensively. Luka will play as he has in all his prior playoff games and Clipper stars Paul George and James Harden will be haunted by ghosts of playoffs past. This series will truly rely on the health of Kawhi Leonard. I am choosing to believe that he will be back at some point for this matchup. The offensive firepower of Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Norman Powell will keep the Clippers in this series until Leonard returns. The Clippers will tough this one out and look forward to a second round matchup with either the Thunder or Pelicans.
Prediction: Clippers in 7
We are set up for a fantastic first round of the NBA Playoffs. While it doesn’t get the same attention as March Madness, the first week of NBA playoffs plus the NBA postseason is truly elite. A decent amount of blowouts are to be expected, but we will also get some games that go down to the wire. Dynasties have a chance to begin while eras for certain teams will be forced to end. Stars will rise to the occasion and fade from the spotlight. All this will happen and we will be there to witness it. Enjoy the playoffs and I will see you all for Round 2!