NBA Trade Deadline: Buy or Sell?
It’s that time of the season. With the NBA trade deadline on Thursday, February 8th, teams are needing to decide whether to buy, sell, or stay where they’re at. While it may get lost in the shuffle of the Super Bowl, the trade deadline is one of the most exciting weeks of the NBA season. A lot of attention always goes to teams at the top of the league. Questions like, “Who will they add to their roster?” or, “Are they willing to part with future draft compensation?” Today we are looking into the 12 teams that are in the “playoff bubble” and deciding what they should do. These are the 12 teams that currently rank between 7 and 12 in each conference.
Eastern Conference
Orlando Magic
Stay Put
The Orlando Magic have come on strong this year. They are currently sitting in the 7th seed and they have a chance to move out of the play-in tournament. They have a strong young team that could really benefit from adding some playoff experience to their roster.
Of course it is safe to assume Paulo, Franz, Jalen Suggs, and a few others are in the clear. They could factor in some other pieces for a veteran presence. With that being said, the offer would have to be for the right price. The Magic should not part with any core young pieces or future draft capital unless the right trade comes along. The worst thing the team can do right now is trade future assets for a 4 month lease when they aren’t true title contenders at the moment.
Overall, the Magic should most likely stay put for this deadline. They are in a fantastic position right now and have a bright future ahead of them. This one was difficult to decide and we switched back and forth several times before finally deciding that they should stay put. The Magic should go into this playoffs looking to further evaluate the pieces they currently have on their roster. The smart move is to evaluate what they have and then make their big move in future off-seasons/ trade deadlines to come.
Miami Heat
Buy
This one seems to be pretty obvious. The Heat have already added a key piece in Terry Rozier before the deadline. While their big move is out of the way, I think there are still smaller moves to be made. These smaller moves will help solidify their roster around the edges. These trades might not get a lot of attention, but Spoelstra and Riley know what to expect in the playoffs. So, these moves will just add to “Heat Culture.”
Per normal, Miami is underperforming in the regular season. Despite this, just like the last few years, nobody will want to play them in the first round. Playoff Jimmy has proven to be a real thing and having two other scorers/ playmakers in Rozier and Herro will make the Heat even scarier than last year. So while they are currently in the 8th seed, we are all planning to see Miami in the playoffs.
Chicago Bulls
Stay Put
If you’re a Bulls fan, your team is unfortunately in purgatory. The Zach Lavine injury does not help them out there. The Bulls are holding on to about a 20 game stretch in 2021-2022 with a healthy Lonzo Ball where the team looked like genuine contenders. This fond memory has cemented the Bulls as a middle of the pack team in the East ever since.
The Bulls could easily blow it up and start over. Players like Demar Derozan, Nikola Vucevic, Alex Caruso, and Andre Drummond would all draw interest from title contenders. They won’t be getting any stars in return, but the draft capital and young talent will help expedite their rebuild. If they do this, they would keep Patrick Williams and Coby White as cornerstones in this rebuild. White is a potential MIP candidate and Patrick Williams continues to show flashes, but lacks the consistency to ink a large extension in free agency.
While trading away most of their team seems like the right move, the Bulls will most likely stay put during this trade deadline. Since the 2021 trade deadline where they acquired Vucevic to the 2021 summer where they signed/traded for Caruso, Derozan, and Lonzo, the Chicago front office has done nothing. They have essentially ran it back each offseason and deadline to bring us where we are today. Things may have been different if Zach Lavine didn’t get injured, but his injury really muddied things up for this franchise. They may make a small trade or two but for the most part expect the Bulls to keep the same core going.
Atlanta Hawks
Sell
The Atlanta Hawks are a team that may, like the Bulls, be delusional. The brief taste of success during their 2021 conference title run may have provided a false sense of future success to the organization. Trae Young is still an elite level playmaker but the promise of 2021 has yet to match even a single series win since.
The team has some quality players which is not an arguable point. Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and Clint Capela have all proven to be valuable players in the NBA. On top of that the emergence of Jalen Johnson has been a welcomed development in Atlanta. Many thought the Quinn Snyder era would lead the Hawks towards an easy playoff birth which has not been the case. The Hawks have a top 10 offense but the 27th ranked defense to go with it.
This team has promising pieces but a playoff run this year is most likely not in the cards for Atlanta. Keeping Trae Young and Jalen Johnson is obvious, but trading some of the other surrounding pieces will be the best move for the team. The Trae Young/ Dejounte Murray sample size has been enough to see that it isn’t what Atlanta was hoping for. However, they shouldn’t trade Murray for 10 cents on the dollar. Trade him if the right offer comes, if not focus on trading away complementary pieces.
Brooklyn Nets
Sell
Brooklyn is another team that is in danger of staying in the 6-10 seed purgatory for the next several years. They have potential franchise staples Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton, but they need to ask some questions internally. How good can you be with Bridges and Claxton as your two best players? Bridges has emerged as a dynamic scorer and Claxton has been an elite rim protector for a few years now, but that isn’t enough to be a true title contender.
The next question Brooklyn needs to ask themselves is, which veteran pieces are they willing to part with? For the sake of this argument let’s say they’re holding onto Ben Simmons. First off, we’re not sure you could get much for Simmons at this point and secondly Ben Simmons is a vital piece if this team is to take the next step. Players like Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neal, Spencer Dinwiddie, and even potentially Cam Johnson would strike interest from other teams.
The Nets should, and most likely will, look to sell before the deadline. By no means should they sell the farm and get rid of their young, core pieces. The team is currently middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive rating so a change is needed. Use this season as experience for your future building blocks, get draft picks, and open up cap space for future moves. They will be a fun team to watch for the remainder of the year and a team to look out for in years to come. Just please trade what you can now and avoid NBA purgatory.
Toronto Raptors
Sell
The Raptors answered this one for us by trading Pascal Siakam to Indiana ahead of the deadline. They additionally have a few other pieces that contenders might want to pick up. These players include Bruce Brown, Jakob Poetl, and Otto Porter Jr. to name a few. It’s safe to say, there is no question what their goal is. Start a new era in Toronto and start that process as soon as the organization can.
Toronto should trade some of their veterans players and give more time to their young players. Scottie Barnes has taken a huge step forward after a Sophomore slump last year. Continue to let Barnes get reps in with the recently acquired Quickley and rookie Gradey Dick. We know Gradey Dick hasn’t gotten off to a great start to his rookie season but we believe in his talent. Let him make mistakes and learn with game time. Raptors fans, enjoy your young players now and look forward to a bright future soon.
Western Conference
New Orleans Pelicans
Stay Put
This can be summed up in one sentence. PLEASE STAY HEALTHY!! When you look at the Pelican roster, the first thing that jumps off the page is the youth. Yes, this team has some glaring needs, but I just want to see them in a playoff series. Do you all remember how fun their 2022 playoff series with Phoenix was? That was without Zion, so let’s see what a fully healthy Pelicans team can do in the playoffs.
New Orleans is in a very different scenario than many of the other teams sitting between 7-12 in their conferences. They have so much young talent, that it’s not reasonable to think they will all find significant roles on the team in the future. The Pelicans should go into the playoffs looking to see which players are future contributors for this team. The players that aren’t quite there can be traded for veteran players to fill roster needs for New Orleans in the future. Even if they aren’t a part of the organization's future plans, they will still gladly be picked up by other teams.
The Pelicans could very easily make a splash in the playoffs and go on a little run. They need to gauge what they have and figure out where they need to improve come the offseason and next trade deadline. The future is bright in New Orleans. I just can’t even begin to stress the importance of figuring out what you truly have before making any of these big moves.
Dallas Mavericks
Buy
The Mavs are another team that could truly make some noise in the playoffs if they make the right moves this week. When you have players like Luke and Kyrie you are bound to have 2 of the top 3 or 4 players in the series which always gives you a chance to win. With that being said, there are some clear holes on this roster and at least some of them need to be addressed. They need a big man (backup or starter) and also a 3 and D style player to start alongside Dallas’s other stars.
There are plenty of players out there on the trading block for the right price so Dallas should and will have options. The Mavs are different than many other teams on this list because they know what they have in Luka and Kyrie. There may be questions regarding their fit together, but there is no question regarding the caliber of them both. They also cannot afford to waste another Luka year where he is an elite, MVP caliber player in this league. When you have a player like Luka, you have to compete for championships and take advantage of every second of his elite years. The Mavericks have the opportunity to take their shot this postseason and will try to make the most of it during the trade deadline.
Los Angeles Lakers
Buy
The Lakers are the easiest answer out of all the teams. The Lakers will look to buy and upgrade their roster during the trade deadline. Lebron James’ teams are always active around the trade deadline. LeGM is constantly looking to improve his roster and does not give the current roster that long of a leash. I honestly cannot blame him as he know what it takes to win championships and will not except anything but the best from his teammates.
As a team, LA has underperformed. They rank 15th in offensive rating, 20th in defensive rating, and are 9th best overall. However the Lakers built themselves this offseason with flexibility for the trade deadline. The moves the Lakers made this offseason were clearly to improve the team but they are also tradeable contracts for this exact scenario. They can piece together contracts and some future picks to get some new blood in the locker room.
The real question is, who is available and wants what the Lakers are having to offer? From the reports coming out throughout this season, there seems to be a disconnect between the Lakers and their potential trade partners. While this is discouraging, I have faith that the Lakers will get a deal done to improve their roster. The trades that delivered Vanderbilt, D-Lo, and Rui last year truly changed their season around. Currently sitting in the 9 seed, the Lakers will need similar trades to occur in order to make a deep playoff run.
Utah Jazz
Sell
The ultimate wild card team is the Utah Jazz. This is due to general manager Danny Ainge, who never lets anyone know his next move. I would not be shocked if they trade Lauri Markkanen or if they trade a future pick/ young player for a veteran piece. If you can recall, the Jazz were a top seed in the West to start off last season. They then lost in the play-in tournament to end their season.
This team could go many different directions. Markkanen would be a hot commodity that many contending teams would be eager to go after. The team also has a plethora of draft picks and young players on their roster that they could trade for roster upgrades. The decision will come down to Danny Ainge and what he wants to do with the team. In the end, I think the Jazz will trade some players and build towards the future. While I would sell, Danny Ainge is unpredictable. So do not be surprised by anything.
Golden State Warriors
Buy
Similar to the Lakers and the Mavs, you don’t give up on a season when you have an elite player that's playing at the peak of their powers. I am clearly talking about Steph Curry as he continues to be insane. It’s the rest of the Warriors that are struggling. Klay, Draymond, Wiggins, and Kuminga have increased their production as the season has progressed. Despite this, it’s dangerous to assume the 11th team in the conference will get right come playoff time.
The Warriors have championship pedigree and experience so the organization knows they need to make some changes. The front office just needs to decide whether they are looking to trade core veterans (Wiggins, Green, Klay), some of their younger pieces, or a mix of both. The hard part is that the Warriors are well into the luxury tax, which handicaps the moves they can make via trade.
The question isn’t whether or not the Warriors will make trades, it’s who these trades will involve. The foundation for this team is there, they just need to fill the voids around their cornerstones. The management needs to find the players that will plays the Jordan Poole, Shaun Livingston, Otto Porter Jr, and Andrew Wiggins (may still be Wiggins) roles on this years teams. If they keep the core of their big 3, its vital to build those other players around them. Players like this may not get all the spotlight, but they make or break championship teams year after year.
Houston Rockets
Stay Put
Houston has been a great story to start the year off. To the dismay of the fans, they have fallen off a bit as of late. However, it's clear to see the impact on the culture that Ime Udoka has had to start the season. His coaching philosophy mixed with the veteran presences of Vanvleet and Brooks have truly improved the team from last year. Houston’s improvement is being ignored because they are currently the 12th seed in the conference. Part of the issue is that the west is such a deep conference, but they know what they’re building towards.
Outside of a couple veterans like Reggie Bullock and Jeff Green there aren’t many trade pieces that the Rockets will likely part with this deadline. My suggestion is to see what they can get for these veterans and use the rest of the season to get more experience for your young players. The Rockets are another team that is on the up and up if a few of their players can develop into stars. Let it ride out this season and continue to build towards the future.
