NBA Finals Preview & Prediction
After 82 regular season games and 3 rounds of playoff basketball, we finally have our Finals matchup. The Boston Celtics will square up against the Dallas Mavericks to determine who will be crowned champion. This series has just about everything you could want in a Finals matchup. It provides star power featuring Jayson Tatum, Jaylon Brown, Luka Doncic, and Kyrie Irving. There is a revenge factor to this series as Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porzingis both square up against their former teams. There doesn’t seem to be any animosity between Kyrie and his former teammates but the city of Boston still despises Irving. Finally, we have rising stars looking to cement their legacy with their first championship. This series will be exciting and features two talented teams that can get it done on both sides of the floor. Before we go any further into this matchup, here’s how Biasedly Unbiased has faired in our playoff predictions:
Playoff Record: 10-4
Round 1 (6-2)
Round 2 (2-2)
Conference Finals (2-0)
Perfect Predictions (Winner and # of Games): 4
The Boston Celtics represent the Eastern conference after defeating the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Indiana Pacers. The Celtics never really struggled and won each series in five games or less. There are individuals hating on their run since Jimmy Butler, Jarret Allen, Donovan Mitchell, and Tyrese Haliburton all missed time against Boston. The Celtics also avoided Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid in the East. All that matters is that Boston beat the teams that were placed in front of them. Their opposition, the Dallas Mavericks, defeated the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves. While they didn’t have to play the defending champion, the Denver Nuggets, their path was still significantly more difficult than what Boston had to face. The Mavs were up to the challenge and never had to play in a Game 7 while working towards the NBA Finals. Dallas was not a Finals favorite like Boston, but have proven themselves as more than capable to beat any team in the league.
As with anything you love, whether it be a sport, TV show, video game, book, etc. the ending is always bittersweet. The NBA Finals is no different. With that being said, we must enjoy the final games of the NBA season and be sad once the season is officially over. All I ask is that this series provide us great basketball and a few close games. If I’m being greedy, I’d ask for a Game 7 to end the NBA season. However, I’ll be happy with some close games and a competitive series. Take a look at my preview and predictions below for the 2024 NBA Finals.
Boston Celtics Vs. Dallas Mavericks
Celtics Round 1 Overview:
Boston handily beat the Miami Heat in five games. Miami was missing both Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier so it wasn’t quite the rematch between the growing rivals that we were hoping for. The only game the Heat managed to win was Game 2 in Boston. To win Game 2, Miami had to go scorched earth and hit 23 three pointers to win. While they snuck one out in Boston, the rest of the series was not particularly competitive. Derrick White may not show up as a category leader below, but he was arguably the Celtics’ best player in their opening round. White is a true terror on both ends of the court for opposing teams and shot 47.7% from beyond the arc. The Celtics won the other four games by 10 points or more.
Point Leader: Jaylen Brown 22.8
Rebound Leader: Jayson Tatum 10.4
Assist Leader: Jayson Tatum 5.4
Misc. Stat: Kristaps Porzingis 1.5 BPG
Celtics Round 2 Overview:
In a series that was shockingly similar to the Miami series, the Celtics beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games. Just like the first round, the Celtics lost Game 2 at home. While the Cavaliers didn’t hit as many threes as Miami did in their Game 2, they still knocked down 13 and Donovan Mitchell poured in 38 points. Another similar point to their first round series, the Celtics were relatively dominant in their four wins. One major development for Boston was the improved play of Jayson Tatum after an up and down opening matchup. There were a few questions heading into this series since Kristaps Porzingis was injured near the end of the Celtics/Heat series. The Celtics are without a doubt better with Porzingis but they didn’t miss him too much in this round. Boston had players like Al Horford and Payton Pritchard step up big time to cruise into the Eastern Conference Finals.
Point Leader: Jayson Tatum 26.8 PPG
Rebound Leader: Jayson Tatum 10.4 RPG
Assist Leader: Jayson Tatum 6.2 APG
Misc. Stat: Payton Pritchard 50% 3P%
Celtics Conference Final Overview:
The brooms were brought out for this series. Boston swept the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Unlike the first two matchups for Boston, the games in this series were close. Two of games were one possession wins by the Celtics and they won the opening game of the series in overtime. The Pacers need to be given their credit. They were heavy underdogs in this series and then Tyrese Haliburton got injured and missed the final two games. While Boston has yet to play a truly competitive series, they gained valuable repetition playing in close games. Even in the games without Haliburton, I don’t think I’d say that the Celtics clearly outplayed the Pacers. Outside of coming through in the clutch, Brown and Tatum each averaged right around 30 points. The difference in the game occurred in the final two minutes of the fourth quarters when the talent of the Boston Celtics took over. People may hate and say Boston avoided any serious competition due to injuries to Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton, and from the other teams in the East. You can’t argue with that, but Boston was the best team throughout the entire regular season.
Point Leader: Jayson Tatum 30.3 PPG
Rebound Leader: Jayson Tatum 10.3 RPG
Assist Leader: Derrick White 6.5 APG
Misc. Stat: Derrick White 2.3 BPG
Celtics X-Factor: Kristaps Porzingis
Mavericks First Round Overview:
This was one of the better first round series that we got to enjoy. The Mavericks beat the Clippers in 6 games, in the 4-5 matchup for the Western conference. The Clippers won Game 1 without Kawhi Leonard, but then Dallas would go on to win 4 of the next 5 games. Despite big single game performances by Paul George and James Harden, the Mavericks were ultimately too much for them to handle. Dallas had role players that stepped up but the spotlight found its way to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Luka was not his normal self in terms of shooting efficiency, but still nearly notched a 30 point triple double average in this first round series. Kyrie was huge for Dallas and played the most locked in defense that I’ve seen him in awhile. Irving seemed to be on cruise control in the first halves of these games and then turned it on in the second halves. This gave the Mavericks the edge they needed to win the series.
Point Leader: Luka Doncic 29.8 PPG
Rebound Leader: Luka Doncic 8.8 RPG
Assist Leader: Luka Doncic 9.5 APG
Misc. Stat: Kyrie Irving 51.4% FG%
Mavericks Second Round Overview:
This series found the 5-Seed Mavericks as underdogs against the 1-Seed Oklahoma City Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was deservedly a finalist for the leagues MVP and he led the Thunder to a win in the opening game of the series. In correspondence with the Clippers series, the Mavs fell in Game 1 but then rattled off wins in 4 of the next 5 games. Unlike the round one series, the Mavericks-Thunder series had several games that went down to the wire. While the Dallas stars shone brightest against Los Angeles, it was the role players that stepped up big in this matchup. Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington, and Derrick Jones Jr. all averaged over 10 PPG this series and gave Dallas the boost they needed to win. All three of these players were added either in the offseason or through in-season trades by Dallas. The biggest impact was made by PJ Washington as Luka and Kyrie weren’t near as efficient in round 2. The former Charlotte Hornet averaged 17.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and shot 46.9% from behind the arc. It felt as though every 3-point attempt from Washington was good, especially his attempts from the corner. The Dallas supporting cast shouldered the load for their stars, which we haven’t seen from all the teams in this year’s playoffs. If you look back at past champions, you’ll see huge games and big plays from lesser known players. As the playoffs continue, big plays from these individuals could be the difference between winning and losing.
Point Leader: Luka Doncic 24.7 PPG
Rebound Leader: Luka Doncic 10.5 RPG
Assist Leader: Luka Doncic 8.7 APG
Misc. Stat: Daniel Gafford 2.0 BPG
Mavericks Conference Final Overview:
This series was littered with close games, yet ended in Dallas defeating Minnesota in five games. The Timberwolves came in hot after a winning a seven game series against the defending champion Denver Nuggets. Some people viewed that series essentially as the Western Conference Finals (WCF) and overlooked Dallas in the real WCF. The first four games of this series were all decided by less than 10 points and were close in the fourth quarter. Game 5 was not close as Luka went nuclear with 20 points in the first quarter and Minnesota was never able to catch up. People can and will take a deep dive into the reason Dallas came out on top, but only one reason is needed. Dallas is just the superior closing team in the fourth quarter of these games. The combination of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving were so efficient late in these games and that was ultimately the difference in the series. Anthony Edwards wasn’t firing on all cylinders like he had been in previous rounds, but he played well in a series where they ultimately fell short. PJ Washington didn’t shoot the lights out like he did in the Thunder series, but he played complementary basketball while other role players stepped up. Those players include Daniel Gafford, Derrick Jones Jr. and Jaden Hardy. Hardy was the surprise of this group as his play time was limited in previous series. However, his 7.4 PPG in just 10 minutes cannot be overlooked. He provided a much needed scoring spark off the bench for Dallas. Luka and Kyrie are one of the top duos in the league, but they will need continued production from their supporting cast to beat a talented Boston team in The Finals.
Point Leader: Luka Doncic 32.4 PPG
Rebound Leader: Luka Doncic 9.6 RPG
Assist Leader: Luka Doncic 8.2 APG
Misc. Stat: Daniel Gafford 2.6 BPG
X- Factor: Bench/ Role Player Production
NBA Finals Key Matchup: Tatum/Brown vs. Doncic/Irving 4th Quarter Scoring
This is another matchup that could really go either way. Both teams are playing incredible basketball and are one step away from reaching their ultimate goal. The Mavericks had a tougher journey to reach this point, but made it all the less. Both teams beat everyone in front of them and won their conference. Despite what many may think, I believe this series to be evenly matched.
The Celtics have bigger names but if the role players on the Mavericks continue playing like this then they’ll come out even. PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford, Jaden Hardy, etc. have all been playing some of their best basketball in recent weeks. With that being said, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis don’t really qualify as role players in my opinion. Holiday and White are two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and know when they are needed to hit timely shots. Those three combined with Payton Pritchard and Al Horford will be the individuals competing against the Dallas supporting cast. For Boston, the return of Kristaps Porzingis cannot be overlooked. The big man truly opens up the Celtics offense to a different level and provides rim protection for them defensively. If he can return to the form he was at earlier in the season the Celtics are nearly unstoppable.
For the Mavericks it will come down to their role players playing like they have been recently. While several of these individuals have come up big, it has been Daniel Gafford, Derrick Jones Jr, and PJ Washington who have been the most effective. Jones and Washington have knocked down perimeter jumpers at percentages better than their career clip while providing toughness on the defensive end. Gafford has been efficient offensively while stonewalling opposing players that try to enter the paint.
In the end, this series will come down to fourth quarter execution. This was showcased by the conference championship victories by the Celtics and Mavericks. There may not be a pair of better executors than Luka and Kyrie. They seem to find the best shot possible whether it be for themselves or for one of their teammates. The Celtics have playmakers all over the floor but have struggled to close outside of the last series against the Pacers. Tatum and Brown will have to take the next step in their development to win Boston its eighteenth title. I think this series will be close and entertaining from the opening tip. Ultimately, I think the Celtics have too much talent and some of the Mavericks’ role players will digress in this series. The Celtics will hang banner number eighteen and the Mavericks will come up just short of championship glory.
Prediction: Celtics in 6