NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Preview and Predictions
We are down to four teams left in contention for the NBA title. The Celtics, Pacers, Mavericks, and Timberwolves are the final teams standing. For the league, some of the biggest, most tenured stars are missing. However, the future is bright with four stars that may be the future of this league. Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Luka Doncic, and Anthony Edwards will be in conferences finals and beyond for years to come. There will be at least one of these incredible athletes that take the next step this year by adding a NBA title to their resume.
The second round gifted us with two Game 7s for our enjoyment. Shockingly, the road teams won both Game 7s, sending home the Nuggets and Knicks. We are nearing the end of this NBA season as we only have four teams and two rounds left. I think we need one of these final three series to be an elite, seven game heavyweight fight. That would truly help make this postseason legendary. If both sides stay healthy, I think there’s a chance for both of these series to be entertaining. I am 8-4 overall in my predictions and 4 of those predictions were guessed perfectly. As sports are unpredictable, I am 100% content with an 8-4 record through two rounds. My predictions for this round are below - now, let’s enjoy these conference finals.
Rounds 1 & 2 Record: 8-4
Round 1 (6-2)
Round 2 (2-2)
Perfect Predictions (Winner and # of Games): 4
East
Boston Celtics Vs. Indiana Pacers
Celtics Playoff Recap: Boston won both of their first round series in 5 games. Coincidentally, their only loss in both series was Game 2 at home. The Celtics dominated the Butler-less Miami Heat. Miami had to go crazy and hit 23 3’s to squeak just one against the high powered Celtics. A similar story was the same in this Cavaliers series. Cleveland played incredible in Game 2 in Boston, but they couldn’t keep it up throughout the series. One of the more impressive feats was how well the Celtics played without Kristaps Porzingis. Their stars played great with Jayson Tatum averaging 26.8 points and Jaylen Brown averaging 23.4 points for the series. While Jrue Holiday and Derrick White both did their jobs, I have to shoutout Payton Pritchard. He gave the Celtics a punch off the bench and averaged 11.6 points. Pritchard solidified his presence instantly on both ends of the court as he brought in immediate energy. The Celtics have been relatively untested but have proven that they will be tough to beat this year.
Celtics X-Factor: Bench Scoring
Pacers Playoff Recap: The Pacers are currently on a run that few people thought they would be on. They beat the Bucks in six games and the Knicks in seven games to start off this playoff run. The first thing some people will point out is that the Pacers played two very injured teams. The Bucks were missing Giannis and Damian Lillard missed some of his games in that series as well. I’ll spare the details of the Knicks’ various injuries, but just know they were certainly not at full strength. While you can’t deny the injuries, don’t discredit this Pacers team. They have balled out and survived knockout blows in both rounds. The Pacers played nine players that all deserve praise for their performance so far in the playoffs. A team having nine guys that can play meaningful minutes takes pressure off the starters. For Indiana, both Haliburton and Siakam scored 20+ points in the second round series against New York. Myles Turner was fantastic with 16 points, 6 rebounds, and added 2.3 blocks per game. Of the lesser known players, I have to shout out Aaron Nesmith (10.1 points) and TJ McConnell (11.9 points and 6 assists). Nesmith provides toughness to a team without an elite defense and his impact is felt well beyond what his numbers indicate. TJ McConnell provided amazing energy off the bench, very similar to Payton Pritchard for Boston. The Pacers are an exciting team that can compete with anyone when their offense is clicking.
Pacers X-Factor: Tyrese Haliburton
Key Matchup: Derrick White/Jrue Holiday vs. Tyrese Haliburton
This series is going to be a fun one and a lot of people will miss out on it. There will be an assumption that Boston will dominate while Indiana either over-performed or got lucky against injured teams. On the other side of things, Boston has been a heavy favorite to win the title since the season began. Despite all this, I believe the series will be much more entertaining than expected. The Pacers have a world-class offense and play at a frenetic pace. As I mentioned, the Pacers can go nine deep and all nine can provide meaningful minutes. We have also seen Boston sleep walk through some games in their first two playoff series. Without Kristaps, who will be missing at least the start of the series, they will need their bench players to continue to play well. Payton Pritchard has been fantastic and they will also need Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet to play valuable minutes. For the Pacers, they need Haliburton to be excellent and most importantly aggressive. It is odd to say that an “X-Factor” can be a teams best player, but we saw that in Round 2. Haliburton was incredibly passive in Game 1 and Game 5 and it hurt the team. If he plays aggressive, and to his full ability, Indiana will have a chance in any game. The job will not be easy for him though. The Celtics can throw a handful of pesky, elite defenders at him to make his life miserable. Most notably, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday will be all over Haliburton. After winning a Game 7 in Madison Square Garden, the Pacers cannot be overlooked. I think they can steal a game or two while being consistent competitors. Ultimately, I think Boston and their two Jays (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown) will push Boston into The Finals without too much difficulty. Boston in 5 has worked for me the prior two series, so I’m going back to the well there. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Prediction: Boston in 5
West
Minnesota Timberwolves Vs. Dallas Mavericks
Timberwolves Playoff Recap: The Minnesota Timberwolves have been eliminating some of the biggest stars in the NBA through two rounds of the playoffs. They swept the Suns in Round 1 without much difficulty and then followed it up with a seven game battle against the defending champion Nuggets in Round 2. Due to the Timberwolves, the NBA does not have Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, or MVP Nikola Jokic left in the playoffs. They beat the Nuggets in one of the strangest series of all time. None of the games were real nail-biters and home court wasn’t as advantageous as it normally is. The Wolves only go 7-8 deep depending on the game or matchup, but that has been enough to make it to the Western Conference Finals. Of these eight players, six of them averaged 10+ points in the second round series against Denver. The leader in the Wolves clubhouse was averaging 27.7 points in the Denver matchup. The Wolves showcased that they were able to get it done on both ends of the court. Their defense was dominate in several of the games against a potent Denver offense. This defense was anchored by Rudy “The Stifle Tower” Gobert but Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and company also played elite defense. For the series, Naz Reid averaged 10.9 points with 4.6 rebounds and a block. Those numbers don’t jump off the page but he was a difference maker and played great defense on Nikola Jokic. Minnesota looks like a team that could compete for years to come. The message has been obvious throughout this playoffs, Anthony Edwards has arrived and the rest of the league has been warned.
Timberwolves X-Factor: Karl Anthony Towns Fouls
Mavericks Playoff Recap: The Mavericks have been the most surprisingly unsurprising teams of the playoffs. What do I mean by that? I am not surprised that Dallas was able to make a run like they have, but was surprised they beat the teams they did. The Mavs beat the Clippers and Thunder in six games each. Luka played awesome in both series, which was to be expected. The play of PJ Washington and the center combo of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II have been pleasant surprises that boosted the Mavs past their competition. What I also have to touch on is the play of Kyrie Irving throughout these playoffs. We have seen Irving reach levels he hasn’t touched in the postseason since 2017 when he was with Cleveland. In both series, he struggled in first halves but then went absolutely scorched earth against Los Angeles and OKC in the second half of games. He is playing with a defensive intensity we haven’t seen from him while going through stretches of classic Kyrie offense. The stats for this Dallas team aren’t eye popping but I wanted to highlight two individuals from Round 2. PJ Washington averaged 17.7 points and 8.3 rebounds on 46.9% shooting from three. The other individual was the energy and 12.8 points per game provided by Derrick Jones Jr. Dallas has their stars playing well, trade acquisitions rounding into form, and role players are providing consistent minutes. The Mavericks are hitting their stride at the perfect time.
Mavericks X-Factor: PJ Washington
Key Matchup: Anthony Edwards vs. Luka Doncic
This series will get a lot more attention as opposed to the Celtics/Pacers series. Which is fair after the recent performances we’ve seen from both the Wolves and Mavs this postseason. This is a series that I truly think can go either way. Luka has played solid but not to his standards giving the Mavericks reason to believe they’ll improve from their already impressive playoff performance. For the Timberwolves, they just knocked off the the defending champions and Anthony Edwards has taken his game to another level. If he reaches or wins the NBA finals, then Ant-Man will cement himself as the future of the league. The Timberwolves and Mavericks have the ability to be dominant on either side of the ball in any given game. The Timberwolves are more consistently elite defensively while the Mavericks are more consistently elite offensively. There is a real possibility that the Timberwolves are just a year too early for true championship contention and that they are too tired after a seven game series against Denver. I think a key matchup here is Edwards vs. Doncic. They honestly might not be matched up often, but I mean the two stars performance in the clutch. I think these games will be close and the difference will lie in the efficiency of the late fourth quarter. Ultimately, I think the Luka and Kyrie combination will be more efficient down the stretch in a series that goes the full seven games.
Prediction: Mavericks in 7