Super Bowl Preview
The grand finale of the NFL season is upon us. Our post football depression is about to set in, but let’s not focus on that. We have a great game ahead of us on Sunday. We get to watch two deserving teams in a game that will provide us with a lot of star power.
I won’t waste time by summarizing how this matchup came to be, because we all watched the games. The 49ers have been the best team in the NFC while the Chiefs limped their way into the postseason. However, when you have Patrick Mahomes, you always have a chance. The Chiefs are looking to cement themselves as a dynasty while the 49ers are trying to win their first Super Bowl of the 21st century.
Regarding the big game, I can truly say that I am excited. We get to watch an exciting 49ers team with big names on both sides of the ball. The Niners defense has struggled in the playoffs but it’s hard to deny the pedigree of Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Chase Young, and the rest of their wrecking crew. Will this defense play up to their potential or will we see much of what we’ve watched in their first two playoff games? On the offensive side of the ball, there are playmakers and stars at every level. George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Trent Williams all have valid claims to be top 3 or higher at their position. Their wide receiver duo is among the best in the league and there are other key players balling out. At the end of the day it will all come down to Brock Purdy.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a story that’s already been told with a new twist this season. The offense has struggled at times during the season but I will never doubt the Mahomes/Kelce/Reid combination. The emergence of Rashee Rice and playoff MVS has helped KC top the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens. The offense is old news, it’s this years defense that is catching everyone by surprise. Outside of Chris Jones, the Chiefs defense does not have the name recognition that the 49ers defense does. What they lack in recognition, they more than make up for in performance this season. This is clearly the best defense Mahomes has played with in his career and they’ve proved it this season. Winning against the the playmakers of the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens was no easy task. Especially when you consider the facts that the Ravens and Dolphins were completely shut down in their matchups. We can expect to see Mahomes be Mahomes in this matchup, but the defense will have to give their all to achieve another Super Bowl title.
Why the Chiefs win:
Dynamic team players
“Everyone knows what you’ll get from the Patrick Mahomes/ Travis Kelce duo.”
Establish the run
At the start of the season, I would’ve laughed if anyone told me Isiah Pacheco would be the X-Factor for the Chiefs. Fast forward to today and I would tell you that he is. Everyone knows what you’ll get from the Patrick Mahomes/ Travis Kelce duo. With the up and down performance of the Chiefs receivers, Pacheco and their offensive line need to show up big on Sunday. There have been plenty of memes this season about Pacheco’s comical running style, but there is nothing funny about how he plays. He is a force coming downhill that will look to run through any player that gets in his way.
The Rutgers product hasn’t had a 100 yard game yet this postseason. Despite that stat, he has been effective and important in each game. As simple as it may sound, getting and keeping Pacheco involved is pivotal for the Chiefs to repeat as world champs. This will keep the 49ers defense honest and create some opportunities for Mahomes. This is also a 49ers team that struggles against the run at times and saw Aaron Jones go over 100 yards on only 18 carries. Look for Pacheco to bring the intensity and provide an edge to the Chiefs offense.
Force Purdy to make big plays
It has been heavily discussed that the 49ers have a highly touted offense. They have some of the best players at their position at running back, fullback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, and tight end. It is unreasonable to think the Chiefs can shut down the 49ers offense and take away all these playmakers. Even a player that I love in JaJuan Jennings (unsung hero for San Fran) can make plays in big time moments. The 49ers can throw receiver screens and crossing routes all day if the Chiefs play preventive rather than aggressive defensive. To win they will need to shut down easy completions, pressure Purdy, and force San Francisco into third and medium-long situations. All in all, it will come down to forcing Brock Purdy to make big time, tight window throws.
When it comes to pass rush, the loss of Charles Omenihu is big when it comes to putting pressure on Purdy. Thankfully for KC, their defense has been lights out in all areas this postseason. In the AFC Championship game, they had 4 sacks on a mobile quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Their relentless pass rush is made more difficult by McDuffie and Sneed having elite seasons in their own right. This will make the job harder on Mr. Purdy and I believe will play right into the hands of the Chiefs defense.
Limit Big Plays
If my numbers are correct, the 49ers have had 10 plays of 20+ yards in their two postseason games. The Chiefs have only allowed four 20+ yard plays this postseason. So we have a classic example of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object when the 49ers have the ball on Sunday. The Niners have explosive players in Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, and CMC that can take it the distance whenever they touch the ball. This one is short and sweet, limit big plays and the Chiefs will put themselves in a great position to win on Sunday.
Why the 49ers win:
Remain balanced on offense
As mentioned, the 49ers are loaded with talent offensively. On the other side, the Chiefs have a stout defense and are once again proving playoff Steve Spagnuolo is a force to be reckoned with. If they are unable to block Chris Jones in the run game or Purdy is having an off night, the 49ers will quickly become one dimensional. This would play right into Kansas City’s hands. A lot of people go with the establish the run to set up the pass approach. To be honest, that would be my approach, but in the Super Bowl it doesn’t matter. Do whatever you can to avoid being one dimensional.
The screens Shanahan schemes up are essentially running plays to build up Brock Purdy’s confidence. With that being said, it’s still vital to get CMC going in the run game. He is a one of a kind talent and can truly break this game open if he gets going. On the other end, if CMC gets going early that should set up the play action pass nicely. All Purdy will need to do is complete his open passes, which he’s shown us he can do all year. If he fails to do so, the Chiefs may load the box and stop the run as well. I believe Purdy will do his job and keep the offense balanced and challenge a surging Chiefs defense.
Sack Patrick Mahomes
This is quickly becoming one of the hardest things to do in all of football. Patrick Mahomes has been sacked just twice in his 3 playoff games this year, and both were from the Ravens game. Teams do not have issues pressuring Mahomes but getting him to the ground is a completely different story. Mahomes is sneakily athletic and his pocket presence allows him to buy time to find open receivers.
Unfortunately for the 49ers, we saw Jordan Love do this exact thing to San Francisco in the divisional round. He bought himself plenty of time and the Niners did not sack the Packer’s quarterback the entire game. This cannot happen if the 49ers wish to win their first Super Bowl since 1994. The organization has spent a lot cap space on Chase Young, Nick Bosa, and Javon Hargrave. For San Francisco to win, I believe they will need to sack Mahomes 3+ times, which is much easier said than done.
Quick in the pocket
“Patrick Mahomes has been sacked just twice in his 3 playoff games this year, and both were from the Ravens game.”
Start Fast
This is plain and simple, San Francisco cannot start as slowly as they did in their first two playoff games if they hope to win. The 49ers have started out only scoring 7 first half points against Green Bay, and they were down 24-7 against the Lions in the NFC championship game. If a similar first half performance occurs on Sunday, they will not be able to come back against Kansas City. Kyle Shanahan has a well documented history of struggles in big games. He will need to use that offensive mind of his to create a strong opening sequence for San Francisco. The 49ers need to start fast to give themselves the best opportunity to win.
Key Matchups:
Travis Kelce vs. Fred Warner/Dre Greenlaw
Chiefs Linebackers vs. Christian McCaffrey
Jawaan Taylor vs. Nick Bosa
Chris Jones vs. 49ers IOL
Score Prediction:
Chiefs: 27 49ers: 24
I truly think we’ll have a great game on our hands Sunday. There will be lead changes and the game should be close for 4 quarters. The key matchups listed above will be what I believe will sway the game. As always, turnovers and special teams have the ability to change the momentum of any game. The Chiefs should have the edge in special teams based on the experience of Butker compared to the inexperience of Jake Moody.
As I stated, this game will come down to the wire. The experience for Mahomes and the chiefs is what ultimately puts them over the top. I have full confidence in Mahomes with the game on the line. We’ve seen him lead game winning/ game tying drives time after time with as little as 13 second left in regulation. This game could easily go either way but a close game will favor the Kansas City’s experience.
