CFP Round 1 Preview
Over the years we have seen several renditions of the College Football Playoff/Championship Game. This is the first year of the 12 team playoff and to say I’m excited would be an understatement. We have 12 deserving teams set to make for an exciting premiere of the new playoff format. Added to the excitement is the fact that the first round of games will be played at the home stadiums of the higher seeds. We really get to watch playoff games played in South Bend, Happy Valley, The Shoe, and Austin. The atmospheres there will be electric and each matchup has some intrigue to it. This weekend provides something that we’ve never seen before and has big brands, great teams, and historic venues to welcome in this new era.
I also want to go on record, because I know everyone is dying to hear my opinion (sarcasm), that I truly think the committee got the 12 teams right this season. I normally hate on the committee but they chose the 12 most deserving teams this year. Teams like Alabama and Ole Miss are incredibly talented but they lost games to mediocre SEC teams in conference that cost them the playoffs. If you want to make the CFP then don’t lose three games and not win your conference. Also, I am very thankful they didn’t penalize anybody for playing in their conference championship game. I would have gone full Denzel mode from Training Day if they dropped SMU out of the playoffs after losing on a game winning field goal. With all that being said, please see my preview for each round as we get ready for an action packed weekend.
Indiana @ Notre Dame
Indiana
Best Players: Kurtis Rourke, Elijah Sarratt, Mikail Kamara, and D’Angelo Ponds
Best Wins: vs. Michigan, vs. Washington
Losses: @ Ohio State
Notre Dame
Best Players: Jeremiah Love, Xavier Watts, Riley Leonard, Howard Cross III, and Jack Kiser
Best Wins: @ Texas A&M, vs. Louisville, vs. Navy
Losses: vs. Northern Illinois
Game Analysis
This game has even more meaning as it’s an in-state battle between Indiana and Notre Dame. To kick off the 12 team playoff we have one of the biggest brands in college football, Notre Dame, against Indiana which is the surprise team of the season. The Hoosiers took the world by surprise and ripped through their schedule to an 11-1 record. First year head coach, Curt Cignetti, has brought his winning culture from James Madison to Indiana completely re-energizing the program in just his first season. I have to address the favorable schedule that Indiana was blessed with this season. They lost to Ohio State without putting up much of a fight in their only game against a ranked team. However, you can’t control your schedule once the season starts and Indiana dominated the majority of that schedule. Transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke has created an explosive passing attack with Elijah Sarratt being his primary playmaker on the outside. Their defense is led by star pass rusher Mikail Kamara who tallied 10 sacks and 15 TFL this season. Indiana has a balanced offense and a productive defense that helped them dominant many teams.
The Fighting Irish took one on the chin in Week 2, losing to a massive underdog in Northern Illinois at home. They bounced back and haven’t lost since, winning all but one of their games by double digits this season. The Irish have a three headed monster in the run game led by the dynamic Jeremiah Love. Riley Leonard is a battering ram of a quarterback and Jadarian Price can take it the distance on any given play. The passing game has been inconsistent and the play of quarterback Riley Leonard is a question mark that will dictate how far the Irish go in the playoffs. Defensively, players like Xavier Watts and Howard Cross lead a stifling defense that is up for the challenge against the Hoosier. Head coach Marcus Freeman and the Irish look to pound the rock and suffocate opposing teams with their talented defense.
I think this game will be very tight through the first 2.5-3 quarters. Ultimately, I think Notre Dame will win as their rushing attack wears down the defense of Indiana. For anyone that has watched the Irish this season, their run game doesn’t always dominate the entire game. Several times its been a slow start and then an explosion of dominance in the second half, which is what I predict we will see Friday night. The Hoosiers will rely on Sarratt and Justice Ellison for big plays that will need to happen to move onto the next round. The Irish defense is talented but injuries throughout the season have depleted their pass rush and star cornerback Benjamin Morrison removes a lockdown corner on the outside. This plays right into the hands of the underdog Hoosiers passing attack which is why I think they can’t be ruled out. Indiana has some motivation as the “little brother” in the state of Indiana and we could see them come flying out of the gates. Ultimately, I think the talent and trench play of Notre Dame will be too much in the end.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31 Indiana 17
SMU @ Penn State
SMU
Best Players: Brashard Smith, Kevin Jennings, Kobe Wilson, and Jahfari Harvey
Best Wins: vs. TCU, @ Louisville, vs. Pitt
Losses: vs. BYU & vs. Clemson
Penn State
Best Players: Tyler Warren, Abdul Carter, Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen
Best Wins: vs. Illinois, @ USC, @Minnesota
Losses: vs. Ohio State & vs. Oregon
Game Analysis
Similarly to Indiana, nobody saw the Mustangs making the playoff. Especially since it’s their first year joining the ACC. What makes it even more surprising is that they started 2-1 with a nail biter victory in Week 0 against Nevada and a loss to BYU at home. The emergence and rise to Stardom for Kevin Jennings is a huge reason why this team improved their level of play. Their offense is explosive with the ability to beat you both through the air and on the ground. Jennings doesn’t have one specific go to target and spreads the ball around to various pass catchers. Brashard Smith is an explosive back that can make big plays in both the run and pass game. When he gets going, Smith is hard to slow down but also opens up the rest of the offense for SMU. Defensively, the Mustangs aren’t an elite group but you can’t overlook this defense. They allowed the 4th lowest rush yards per game (93.4) and can force opponents to become one dimensional. They are underdogs for sure, but I think too many people are writing off the ponies preemptively.
Penn State is another team that can be compared to the Indiana Hoosiers but in a different way. The Nittany Lions have more talent on paper so the talent levels are not comparable. The comparison is the schedule at Penn State lost both games against Top 10 opponents but were able to beat everyone else on their schedule. Unlike Indiana, Penn State kept both losses close and have more program prestige than their Big 10 counterpart. While their schedule was a little light, the offensive improvement under Andy Kotelnicki cannot be overstated. The way he uses star tight end Tyler Warren has really opened up their offense, as Warren has been nearly uncoverable all year. It makes things even harder when they have a two headed monster at running back with Singleton and Allen. The Nittany Lion defense is filled with playmakers at all three levels, none more impactful than future first round pick Abdul Carter. He has 10 sacks on the season and will disrupt any and every offense Penn State plays against this postseason.
I think a lot of people are overlooking this game and there’s a serious chance that SMU keeps this game close or pulls off the upset. Plus we saw that the ponies don’t give up in their near comeback against Clemson in the ACC championship game. They also have a great kicker in Collin Rogers if this game gets close. The Mustangs have a more than capable defense that I think will struggle to stop a strong rushing attack of Penn State. SMU will put up some points against a sturdy Penn State defense but ultimately will not be able to keep up. The temperature for Saturday is also set to be in the 20s which is far different than the weather the Mustangs see in Texas.
Prediction: Penn State 34 SMU 26
Clemson @ Texas
Clemson
Best Players: Cade Klubnik, Phil Mafah, Barrett Carter, Antonio Williams, and T.J Parker
Best Wins: @ Pitt & vs. SMU
Losses: vs. Georgia, vs. Louisville, vs. South Carolina
Texas
Best Players: Quinn Ewers, Matthew Golden, Kelvin Banks Jr., Anthony Hill Jr., and Gunnar Helm.
Best Wins: @ Michigan, vs. Oklahoma, @Texas A&M
Losses: vs. Georgia x2
Game Analysis
The Clemson Tigers are appearing in the College Football Playoff for the 7th time since it began in 2014. They took advantage of a Miami loss in the final week of the season and then beat SMU in the ACC Championship to secure their automatic bid. Finishing the season 10-3 wasn’t what Clemson initially had in mind for 2024. However, its not how you start, it’s how you finish. The Tigers are riding on the backs of an explosive offense and a much improved Cade Klubnik. The dual threat quarterback made massive strides as a passer this season to help Clemson reach this point in the season. His main target is wide out Antonio Williams, but Clemson boasts a stable of pass catchers for Klubnik to connect with down the field. There are some defensive worries as the Tigers allowed 364.9 yards per game which is the most of any team in this year’s CFP. They are talented on paper with stars like Carter and Parker but they’ll need to tighten up in order for Clemson to repeat their magic of 2016 and 2018.
The Texas Longhorns are somehow 11-2 but underwhelming at the same time. They ran through their schedule with ease besides the two games against Georgia, including a SEC Championship game that was there for them to take. That’s too much negative energy though, the Longhorns are a team overflowing with talent that I believe can beat anyone on the right day. Offensively, Quinn Ewers has been up and down this season but he’s a tremendous talent at the quarterback position. Quinn can make every throw and spreads the ball to Golden, Helm, and Bond for this dynamic Texas offense. When they are able to get their running backs going behind an experience offensive line is where we really see Texas get going. All the attention goes to Ewers/Arch Manning and this offense. However, the Longhorn defense deserves a lot more praise. Texas allows 12.5 points per game (second in the country) and has totaled 38 sacks this season. They are truly disruptive at all three levels and you can’t really find a major flaw across the board. Ewers might get a lot of the attention but this elite defense will be the main reason the Longhorns go on a run.
I don’t think anyone can rule out Clemson, especially with Dabo’s prior playoff experience. Clemson also has talent and an offense that can put up points in a hurry. However, I think Texas runs away with this one. Based on what the Longhorns have shown this season they should dominate both sides of the ball. They might not have a go to target but that allows Ewers to spread the ball and attack every part of this Clemson defense. I expect the Longhorns to put up some points, but the real dominating force will be their defense. Klubnik has had a fantastic season but he hasn’t faced anything like what the Longhorns will throw at him. Look for Texas to create some turnovers and capitalize on the short field or fields they’re given. A rare matchup of two orange teams will likely end up in the higher seed winning, but it’s college football and anything can happen. That’s why we watch.
Prediction: Texas 31 Clemson 14
Tennessee @ Ohio State
Tennessee
Best Players: Dylan Sampson, James Pearce Jr., Jermod McCoy, Nico Iamaleava, and Arion Carter
Best Wins: @ Oklahoma, vs. Alabama, vs. Florida
Losses: @ Arkansas and @ Georgia
Ohio State
Best Players: Jeremiah Smith, Caleb Downs, Quinshon Judkins, Donovan Jackson, and Jack Sawyer
Best Wins: @ Penn St, vs. Indiana, vs. Iowa
Losses: @ Oregon & vs. Michigan
Game Analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers enter this game with honestly one big question mark. How will Nico Iamaleava play in this year’s playoffs? The dual threat quarterback has all the talent in the world. Tennessee fans are just waiting for it to consistently show up on game days. The Volunteers are able to consistently attack on the ground with Dylan Sampson averaging 5.8 yards per carry and is 9th in all of college football in rushing yards. The team looks best when Nico is accurate passing down the field opening up the run game for Sampson even more. Unfortunately we have seen him struggle which makes the offense for the Volunteers predictable and easy to stop. Thankfully Tennessee has a defense that’s top 5 in both yards and points allowed per game. James Pearce Jr. is a first round draft pick off the edge and Jermod McCoy is a playmaker on the back end of their defense. They are great against both the run and the pass. This defense also helps the Volunteers stay in games where Rico and the offense may be struggling. Even though the defense is sure to continue balling out in the postseason, Tennessee needs the offense to be more consistent to compete.
Ohio State might have the most talented roster in all of college football. The offense and defense are both stacked with 5 star recruits, All-Americans, and future NFL players. Their offense is a juggernaut led by freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and transfer running back Quinshon Judkins. Smith is one of the best true freshman receivers I’ve ever seen, and I’m pumped to watch him for 2 more years. While Judkins proved this year he’s a beast on the field just like he is on CFB 25, the Buckeyes also returned players like Egbuka, Tate, and Henderson to make the offense even more dynamic. This offense is enough to worry anyone but the defense is just as good if not better. The Buckeyes have only allowed over 20 points one time this season and that was against undefeated Oregon Ducks. The only question mark for this defense is the cornerback position which isn’t as consistent as you’d like. However, safety, linebacker, and pass rush are all strength of this Ohio State defense that is statistically the best in college football. Another impressive statistic is that they lost only 2 games by a total of just 4 points. So why am I sort of down on the Buckeyes? Will Howard at quarterback has not inspired me for starters. The main reason though is that loss to Michigan the final week of the season. Those Wolverines were not a good football team and that’s 4 straight losses against a hated rival. I think we’ll be able to tell within the first quarter if that Michigan loss destroyed their entire season or if the Buckeyes are ready to bounce back.
I put a lot of thought into this particular game. This is a battle of top 5 defenses playing in front of a crowd of 102k fans in Columbus. Tennessee is not afraid of playing a physical brand of football and will look to limit some of Ohio State’s playmakers. I also don’t expect a Heisman level performance from Nico but he’ll make some big time plays on Saturday. Will Ohio State come out swinging or did a humiliating rivalry loss derail their season? I really wanted to pick the Volunteers here but I couldn’t do it. The Buckeyes have way too much talent and their defense will likely keep Tennessee under 20 points. Both offenses will be able to move the ball but I would expect this to be lowest scoring game of the weekend.
Prediction: Ohio State 23 Tennessee 16
I’m a little disappointed in myself that I went full chalk and picked the favorites to win every game. Unfortunately none of the underdogs really spoke to me and I think home field advantage for this first round is a big leg up. The matchups also didn’t necessarily match up in favor of the lower seeds in this case. I am feeling frisky about some of the potential second round matchup upsets, but we’ll get there when we get there. This is shaping up to be not only one of the best football weekends of the year but simply one of the best all around sports weekends of the year. Don’t take a second of it for granted my friends and we’ll check back in for the Quarter Finals.