CFP Semi-Final Preview
Now that is what I’m talking about! Even though I enjoyed the first round of the CFP, this 2nd round is what I was waiting on. We got one elite game, an unexpected domination by Ohio State, and two more competitive playoff games. To those of you that didn’t overreact to a lackluster opening round, your unwavering belief was paid off in this latest round. Surprisingly, all 4 conference champions (seeds 1-4) lost in this second round. To be fair, not every higher seed was a favorite to win, but nobody expected them to go 0-4.
After 2 rounds we are left with Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Penn State. All four of these teams were in the preseason Top 10, so there are no Cinderella stories left. With that being said, each team has their own story and battles to get into the Semi-Finals. The Orange Bowl matchup will be more of a gritty defensive battle. Notre Dame and Penn State have great defenses and offenses that are the real question marks. In our Cotton Bowl matchup we have have a battle of two incredibly talented rosters. I definitely don’t expect this game to be a shootout, but the talent levels of these offenses will be nearly impossible to stop for four straight quarters. Check out my predictions for this semi-final round below:
Round 1: 4-0
Round 2: 3-1
Penn State vs. Notre Dame (Orange Bowl)
Penn State
Best Players: Tyler Warren, Abdul Carter, Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen
Best Wins: vs. Illinois, vs, SMU, vs. Boise State
Losses: vs. Ohio State & vs. Oregon
Notre Dame
Best Players: Jeremiah Love, Xavier Watts, Riley Leonard, Howard Cross III, and Jack Kiser
Best Wins: @ Texas A&M, vs. Indiana, vs. Georgia
Losses: vs. Northern Illinois
Key Matchups:
Notre Dame OL vs. Penn State DL
Penn State OL vs. Notre Dame
Tyler Warren vs. Notre Dame LBs and Safties
Game Analysis
Penn State has won both their playoff games without much stress. I give a ton of respect to both SMU and Boise State, but the Nittany Lions were clearly the more talented team. The game against Boise State was a little closer than the score depicts, but it is the outcome that was never really in question. They have been able to to lean heavily on their defense and run game. Drew Allar has played good football but he wasn’t asked to do a ton, which is what Penn State wants. In the Orange Bowl and beyond, they’ll look to get the run game going early to open up the play action. As I’ve said before, Andy Kotelnicki is an offensive mastermind. So to stop the Nittany Lions, you’ll have to limit the run to cause Allar to be more of a drop back passer. With all this Drew Allar talk, the most important players for Penn State are Abdul Carter and Tyler Warren. Abdul Carter is vital and, unfortunately for Penn State, his status is up in the air with an apparent shoulder injury. There are several other playmakers on the Nittany Lions defense but Carter is the most dominant. With Tyler Warren it’s simple, find ways to get him the ball. Warren is one of the best tight ends in recent college football history. Get him the rock as nobody has been able to match up with him all season.
The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win in about 30 years. They beat the Bulldogs in all 3 phases of the game. They forced 2 turnovers, returned a kickoff to the house, and the offense iced the game away late. After a disastrous loss to Northern Illinois at home early in the season, Notre Dame rallied and hasn’t lost since. A shoutout to the Irish and Marcus Freeman for their resilience this season and Freeman’s coaching masterclass in the Sugar Bowl. The Notre Dame offense was nothing spectacular and will need to make a big improvement if they want to win against Penn State. We saw the Irish running attack improve in the fourth quarter, but they’ll look to get that going early moving forward. Star running back Jeremiah Love got injured and did not return against the Bulldogs. His health going into this week will be huge because Love is one of the best running backs in the country when healthy. We need to take a second though to appreciate that Notre Dame defense. They saw a wounded Georgia offense and suffocated them. They were excellent at all three levels of their defense. The pass rush was tenacious, their linebackers were fast, and their secondary forced a fumble to change momentum. I expect the Notre Dame defense to do their job but the offense will need to step up to win again.
I expect this game to be a dog fight. Both teams have great defenses and Penn States offense is superior compared to that of Notre Dame. Penn State will look to stay unpredictable offensively and force Notre Dame into passing situations. Led by Abdul Carter, his health is important, the Nittany Lion pass rush has been ferocious all season. Offensively, they will want to get the running game going against a talented Notre Dame front seven. This will keep all offensive options open for Kotelnicki when calling plays. If the Nittany Lions can remain unpredictable that will help them score points on one of the best defensive units in the country. The Fighting Irish have yet to play a great game offensively in this year’s CFP. I think they’ll look to get Riley Leonard rolling early with both easy passes and quarterback runs. Their passing attack is a lot less explosive than the Penn State offensive. However, the Fighting Irish want to live in 3rd and 3 or less situations. That way they can keep both options open and build up the confidence of Riley Leonard. Defensively do the opposite and force Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions into 3rd and long situations. The Fighting Irish special teams have also been much improved as of late. Former All American kick returner Jayden Harrison had a big kick return touchdown against Georgia and kicker Mitch Jeter is looking much better after coming back from his injury. Ultimately, I think this game could go either way but the Fighting Irish will end up on top. I expect them to make life difficult for Drew Allar and be much more effective running the ball this week. If they can create some turnovers and get Jeremiah Love into open space, they’ll be in a great position to succeed this round.
Prediction: Notre Dame: 24 Penn State 21
Texas vs. Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)
Texas
Best Players: Quinn Ewers, Matthew Golden, Kelvin Banks Jr., Anthony Hill Jr., and Jahdae Barron.
Best Wins: @Texas A&M, vs. Clemson, vs. Arizona State
Losses: vs. Georgia x2
Ohio State
Best Players: Jeremiah Smith, Caleb Downs, Quinshon Judkins, Donovan Jackson, and Jack Sawyer
Best Wins: @ Penn St, vs. Tennessee, vs. Oregon
Losses: @ Oregon & vs. Michigan
Key Matchups
Jeremiah Smith vs. Jahdae Barron
Kelvin Banks & Trevor Goosby vs. Jack Sawyer & JT Tuimoloau
Game Analysis
Texas snuck away with a narrow, overtime victory against Arizona State. The Longhorns dominated the first half and looked like they’d run away with the game after going up 14-0 while running just 2 offensive plays. However, the Sun Devils came back and Texas did look like a championship caliber team in the second half. I thought the Longhorns would be able to run the ball at will against Arizona State, but that wasn’t the case. You have to give Quinn Ewers some credit for that 4th down through in the first overtime period. He put the Longhorns championship hopes on his back and delivered when it mattered most. He wasn’t incredibly accurate throughout the game but like I stated, he came up big when the game was on the line. Defensively, this Texas unit looked elite in the first half, but the Cam Skattebo and the Sun Devils offense took over. This unit will need to come to play against a juggernaut Ohio State offense this week. The Longhorns will need to play their best game yet if they have any hopes of beating the Ohio State.
Ohio State might have the two best wins of this playoff. They dominated both Tennessee and Oregon in games that were expected to be much closer. On paper, Ohio State has the most talented starting lineup in the country. Despite going 10-2 they never really played up to that standard until the playoffs started. They play near perfect football on both sides of the ball, but Jeremiah Smith deserves a ton of recognition. Smith was unguardable against both the Volunteers and Ducks. His route running is precise, he is an explosive athlete, and he has great hands. He will be a key point for Ohio State in virtually every game for the rest of his Buckeye tenure. While the offense was incredible, Ohio State’s defensive unit may have been better on New Years Day. They held the Ducks, one of the most high powered offenses in the country, to 0 points in the first half. They shut down the run and put pressure on Dillon Gabriel all afternoon. The pass rush from Jack Sawyer and company prevented Dillon Gabriel from getting comfortable leading to a disjointed Oregon attack. The Buckeyes have looked like the best team through 2 rounds of this playoff.
After watching the first two rounds of this playoff, it will be hard to pick against Ohio State. They have a balanced offense with a group of the best playmakers in the country. Texas will need to stop Jeremiah Smith. The problem is the Buckeyes still have Henderson, Judkins, Egbuka, and Tate to go to if you can successfully take away Smith. The Buckeyes will look to shut down the Texas run game. This season, the Longhorn offense really struggles when they become one dimensional. The problem when going against Ohio State is that they are elite on both sides of the football. If the defense struggles the offense will put up points, and if the offense struggles the defense will get stops. Texas definitely has a shot as I believe they haven’t played their best ball yet. We saw in the first Ohio State vs. Oregon matchup that the corners for Ohio State are beatable. With that being said, Ewers and his receivers will have to play their best game of the season to move on to the next round. Ultimately, I believe there is too much talent on that Ohio State roster for them to lose here. They will be able to score against Texas and I think their defense will keep up their dominant play.
Prediction: Ohio State 31 Texas 20
We have two incredible matchups here that will lead us to a showdown in the National Championship on January 20th. Based on my predictions above, you can see that I believe the matchup will be Notre Dame vs. Ohio State. However, I would be very content and excited with any of the possible matchups we have. These teams have earned their way to this Semi-Final and will have to earn another victory to compete in the National Title. I think one of these games will go down to the wire just like the overtime thriller we had between Texas and Arizona State. Anything can happen within this week. As always, enjoy and I’ll see you back here for my National Championship preview in a couple weeks.